Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Question

Will the number of representatives in the House of Representatives who are members of the republican party be majority throughout the entirety of the 119th Congress?

Republicans will be deemed to be in the majority as long as a majority of the members seated and sworn throughout the entirety of the 119th Congress are Republicans. Failure to elect a speaker or failure to form a conference with a majority of members of the house will not, standing alone, resolve this market to "NO."

If there is a question as to whether a certain number is Republican, how they are identified by the clerk of the house on official paperwork will control. Expulsion from the conference or the republican party from the state which they represent standing alone will not count as them having left the Republican Party unless the clerk of the house, on official paperwork, records them as a designation other than Republican. This market resolved immediately to "NO" if the Republicans have lost a majority. Another party need not take the majority or Republicans to have lost a majority.

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Rules Update - 11/20/2024:

In the unlikely event that Republicans lose a majority in the House before the beginning of the 119th Congress, this market will resolve to "No" as soon as the AP, NBC News, and Fox News declare that the Republicans do not have a majority in the House.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 97% chance (16 traders, as of Mar 2, 2026).