Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Question

Background

The Department of Justice (DOJ) maintains numerous high-profile cases across antitrust, financial regulation, and tech sectors. There is historical precedent for the DOJ dropping cases during presidential transitions, particularly when they align with new administration priorities or face policy constraints.

Resolution Criteria

A case will be considered "dropped" if any of the following occur during Trump's presidency:

The DOJ voluntarily dismisses the case

The DOJ declines to continue pursuing an appeal

The DOJ settles the case without obtaining significant remedies relative to the original complaint

The DOJ substantially scales back the scope or charges

The DOJ scales back the scope of relief it is seeking to the point that the relief is fundamentally insignificant or nominal in nature.

The market will resolve separately for each case listed. Cases that will resolve No are those that are:

Concluded through the normal judicial process without a significant change to the position of the United States

Settled with substantial remedies

Resolved through the normal judicial process before Trump takes office.

If the United States drops its original position before Trump takes office, that case will resolve as N/A.

Note: a market can resolve to yes even if the case continues for any reason (such as a private party or state government maintaining the litigation). The only thing that matters for the purposes of this market is whether the United States government abandoned its position.

On Adding Answers:

I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

If a submission is attempting to be a valid answer. I will help the author to make it a valid answer.

If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" that answer will resolve N/A

Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market on the TikTok ban case is specifically confined to the case titled "TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland".

This case will only resolve to "YES" if the Department of Justice (DOJ), under the Trump administration, makes a filing reversing the position of the Biden administration before the issuance of the court mandate.

The issuance of the court mandate ends the case.

Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

Filing Requirements: The market will only resolve to "YES" if, before the court mandate is issued, the Trump administration submits a filing that both reverses the Biden administration's position and requests additional action.

Current Status of the Case: A filing that only states a reversal of position without requesting further action will not meet the criteria for a "YES" resolution.

Market State: In the absence of a filing that meets both conditions, the market remains open.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried, followed by U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case) and Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case) are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).