Which case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?

Question

Which of the above cases will have their holdings overruled by the Supreme Court before Donald Trump's term in office as president is scheduled to end?

Overruling the holding of that case will be considered as the resolution criteria, even if that case is not overruled in full. Upon request, and also if it is deemed necessary due to an upcoming Supreme Court case or petition, I will state the holding of the case so that it can be accurately traded on.

A case will count as overruled if a majority opinion of the court states that it is overruled even if the circumstances confronted in the case or not substantially similar or the same as the case being overruled. See Trump v. Hawaii, 585 U.S. 667, 710 (2018). Additionally, a case will be counted as overruled if the court decides a case, presenting similar facts in a different manner than a prior case regardless of whether the Supreme Court states that the case has been overruled. See Ramos v. Louisiana, 590 U. S. 83, 101-105 (2020), Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, 600 U.S. 181 (2023). However, a case will not be considered overruled, even if the factual, legal, or doctrinal basis for the decision in that case has been significantly eroded as long as the court doesn't go as far as to overrule the case. See e.g. Hernandez v. Mesa, 589 U. S. 93 (2020), Ziglar v. Abbasi, 582 U. S. 120 (2017), Locke v. Davey, 540 U.S. 712 (2004), Zelman v. Simmons-Harris, 536 U.S. 639 (2002).

Please note: that given the somewhat ambiguous nature of the Supreme Court's decisions, I will not trade on this market.

On Adding Answers:

I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

All answers must be real Supreme Court cases that have yet to be overruled

A case must have a clear holding

If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" or "No" that answer will resolve N/A

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments), followed by Mapp v. Ohio and Jacobson v. Massachusetts are most likely. See the market for live updates (23 traders, as of May 24, 2026).