Luigi Mangione Federal Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers]

Question

Resolution Criteria

The trial will be considered to have started in a jury trial when the jury is sworn. See Crist v. Bretz, 437 U.S. 28 (1978). In a bench trial, the trial will be considered to have started once the first witness is sworn. See Serfass v. United States, 420 U.S. 377, 388 (1975). The trial will be considered to be over once a verdict has been rendered on all charges. More specifically, a charge will be deemed to end in an acquittal if "any ruling that the prosecution’s proof is insufficient to establish criminal liability for an offense" is returned by the jury or found by the judge. Evans v. Michigan, 568 U. S. 313, 318 (2013). The case will deemed to end in a conviction once judgment is entered on the verdict of guilty (usually after sentencing). This market will remain open through retrials ordered by the trial court however, it will not remain open if a new trial is ordered on appeal (though if a new trial is ordered after appeal, a duplicate market will likely be created for that trial)

Each answer will be resolved independently based on publicly available court records, media reports, and official trial documentation. Markets will resolve as follows:

"Gavel-to-gavel coverage" answers will resolve YES if the named network provides continuous trial coverage, video or otherwise. Non-video coverage similar to the way that CNN covered Donald Trump's hush money Trial will be considered gavel-to-gavel coverage

"Trial is televised" resolves YES if any network provides live video coverage of trial proceedings

"Changes counsel" resolves YES if Mangione formally switches legal representation from Tom Dickey once Tom Dickey has entered an appearance as counsel in the New York matter. Adding an additional person as counsel without Tom Dickey withdrawing from the case will not resolve this to YES.

"Alternate juror seated" resolves YES if any alternate replaces an original juror during trial

"Juror names not public" resolves YES if juror identities remain sealed through verdict

"Trial doesn't start until 2026" resolves YES if the jury is sworn in 2026 or later

"Bench trial" resolves YES if case proceeds without a jury

"Motion for recusal" resolves YES if any party files a formal motion requesting judge's recusal

"Brady evidence withheld" resolves YES if court finds prosecution failed to disclose required evidence

Sanction answers resolve YES if court formally sanctions respective parties

"Held in contempt" resolves YES if judge holds Mangione in contempt during proceedings

Questions regarding jury sequestration will resolve N/A if the case is heard as a bench trial

Markets resolve N/A if the trial is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or ends in a plea deal before the relevant event could occur.

On Adding Answers:

I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

Answers must have clear criteria for resolving (I will help write the criteria)

No meta markets will be allowed (i.e. more than 10 answers resolved to "yes")

If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" or "No" that answer will resolve N/A

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Juror names are not public record, followed by Trial doesn't start until 2026 and Court TV offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage" are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Jan 30, 2026).