Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)

Question

This refers to Luigi Mangione’s New York murder trial. I will resolve these as they occur. Unless otherwise noted, all others will be resolved upon completion of the trial.

If/when trial date becomes more clear, I will open another market for events specifically occurring during the trial.

Please add options and I will do my best to ensure they are clear and not duplicative.

Each proposition will resolve independently based on publicly verifiable information from reputable news sources or official court documents before the start of the trial. Specific resolution criteria:

Venue change: a request for a change of venue must be filed under NY CLS CPL § 230.20

Venue change granted: court grants motion under NY CLS CPL § 230.20

Reference arrests: Must be documented arrests where the suspect/criminal explicitly cites Mangione or this case as inspiration/motivation

Plea deal: formal agreement to plead guilty or no contest

Confession: Must be a formal confession to law enforcement or the court, beyond the existing handwritten document

Evidence allegations: Must be formal allegations filed in court documents by the defense

Additional charges: Must be formal criminal charges filed in direct connection with Thompson's murder

Markets resolve no if the jury is sworn in or a plea is entered before the specified event occurs. The events that are possibilities to occurred during trial maybe added to Luigi Mangione Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers] market.

On Adding Answers:

I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Statement on Liquidity:

If traders on this market independently add Ṁ550 of liquidity to this market, I will upgrade this market to Plus status

Update 2024-17-12 (PST): Attempted crimes refers specifically to crimes committed at a different time than the murder. (AI summary of creator comment)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence, followed by Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents and Defense requests change in venue are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Jun 20, 2026).