When will the next human die in space (above the Karman line)?

Question

This question resolves to the decade when, according to at least two credible sources, a human dies above the Karman line. For this question, surfaces or interiors of extraterrestrial objects, such as the Moon, Mars, asteroids, etc., also count as space.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2030s, followed by 2020s and 2040s are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Aug 27, 2026).