Will Ukraine armed forces reach the Seim river around Glushkovo and Tyotkino by December 2024?

Question

There is speculation that armed forces of Ukraine aim to isolate the Russian forces beyond the Seim river and take the area, somewhat similar to the Kherson operation last year.

This resolves YES, if Ukraine gains control of the whole area bounded by Ukraine border, Tyotkino, the Seim river and Glushkovo by close date. Minor enclaves (less than 500m from the river, e.g. Russian contesting some of the river bends) that are not fully controlled still mean this resolves YES. Currently Ukraine doesn't control any part of the area. A sketch of the area is below:

[image]I will use the maps and reporting by Institute of the Study of War (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates)

This resolves YES immediately if at any time the whole area in question is considered under control of Ukraine - even if they lose the territory later.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Dec 5, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.