Will the Russian army reach Sudzha (Kursk oblast) by Nov 15th?

Question

Background: There is an Russian counter-offensive underway in Kursk oblast. Will it be successful in reaching the city of Sudzha in a month from today?

Will resolve based on the institute for the study of war maps (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates and the online interactive map at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/83a2f24901c941d581c0c523ecd2619b) . Resolves YES immediately if any part of Sudzha Town is marked as "Russian advances in Russia" or as under full Russain control on any of the ISW maps assesing the situation up to Nov 15th.  Otherwise resolves NO.

For reference, the situation as of Sep 10th is:  https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20October%2013%2C%202024.png

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 16, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.