Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak

Question

Outbreak currently in DR Congo and Uganda.

States resolve YES when their health authorities or WHO reports a local case and resolve NO when the outbreak is declared over by WHO / Africa CDC.

People who are transferred with a suspected or confirmed infection for treatment to another state under medical supervision are excluded (e.g. western states repatriating their infected citizens does not resolve, a person travelling who is already infected but without being already suspected and is diagnosed in their destination does resolve)

Cases confirmed to be from a different outbreak do not count.

Some background: https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-play-catch-startling-ebola-outbreak

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, South Sudan, followed by Tanzania and Central African Republic are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Oct 2, 2026).