What price will Silver hit in 2026? (read desc.!)

Question

Inspired by the weird capitalization of

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Jack1/what-price-will-silver-hit-in-janua)This market tracks the price of the lowest tier of monthly individual paid subscription for Nate Silver's blog at https://www.natesilver.net/.  This is currently $ 12. Prices above $12 are considered a "hit" if at any time throughout 2026 Nate offers a monthly paid subscription with a price tag HIGHER OR EQUAL to that price. Symmetrically, prices below $12 are considered a "hit" if a monthly subscription with a price that LOWER OR EQUAL is offered.

The free subscription tier does not count for resolution. Yearly subscriptions don't count as long as any monthly subscription is offered. If only longer/shorter subscriptions are offered I will calculate the per-month cost of the cheapest offered and treat that as the new cost.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, $13, followed by $15 and $20 are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Mar 2, 2026).