Will Twitter (X) have a login wall on January 15, 2024?

Question

At approximately market close, I will visit the following page in an Incognito window: twitter.com/elonmusk/

If that redirects to a login page (or full screen pop-up) the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

If others are able to check at the exact close time and provide screenshots I will accept that as proof unless there's reason to believe it's fraudulent. Otherwise it will be based on whenever I check, even if that turns out to be a bit later than the exact close (could be up to 48 hours, though I'll try my best to be quicker than that).

Any changes to the login wall between now and close don't matter, just the end state at close time as described above. It doesn't matter whether the login page can be bypassed/dismissed.

Same rules as the previous version of this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/A/will-twitter-have-a-login-wall-on-a)Clarifications:

Regarding "Fullscreen pop-up" -- any kind of modal pop-up that prevents interacting with the page content will count. If it's just a small pop-up on the side that can be ignored it won't count.

If Twitter no longer exists at market close this resolves N/A.

If Twitter ("X") is renamed etc. but otherwise seems to be a continuation of the same entity, that will not affect the resolution of this market.

To define login page: It needs to have the primary purpose of telling the user that they need to log in. So if the page just has the normal "log in or sign up" options in a small bar next to some content that's otherwise relevant, that would be NO. But if the page has a message explicitly stating "we're showing you this irrelevant content because you're not logged in" that would be YES. If the page is so blatantly irrelevant that it's obviously intended to send that message (e.g. a big picture of a troll face) and includes a log-in button that would be YES. Showing tweets that are old but otherwise relevant would be NO if there's no explicit message. (See https://manifold.markets/A/will-twitter-x-have-a-login-wall-on#IdkKb5b9xzxkxK0NAdc8)

Since the above may be slightly subjective, I won't bet.

Context: https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/30/twitter-now-requires-an-account-to-view-tweets/

[link preview]

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 16, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.