Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?

Question

Ali Khamenei predicted that Israel will not survive past 2040. Iran has even launched a countdown clock for Israel's purported destruction. Will Israel survive beyond that date?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 92% chance (35 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).