Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026. 
This could manifest in many different ways:
- a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes
- a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI 
- private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down.
- governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.
These events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc.
Other reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count.

Feel free to ask more questions about the criteria. I will not trade on this market.

Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion. A Wikipedia article about the AI bubble bursting would be sufficient for YES resolution.

The market can resolve YES even if:

The stock market drop is relatively minor

The drop recovers quickly

What matters most is whether trusted news sources use headlines like "AI bubble bursts" or similar language when reporting on the events, rather than the magnitude of any specific metric.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (394 traders, as of Jun 20, 2026).