Which countries will be attacked by Iran or its proxies between May 4 and July 31, 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" for any country where an attack—defined as the intentional firing of missiles, rockets, drones, or artillery, or a direct physical ground incursion—is carried out by the Iranian military, the IRGC, or identified Iranian-aligned proxy groups (such as Hezbollah, Houthis, or various militias) between May 4, 2026, and July 31, 2026.

Attacks targeting sovereign territory, including established diplomatic facilities, count toward resolution.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is explicitly excluded from this market.

Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from reputable international news outlets (Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg News) or official government statements confirming the origin of the attack.

Participants may add countries to the list of answers.

Background

Iran and its regional proxies frequently utilize a network of affiliated groups to exert influence and conduct military operations across the Middle East. These activities often involve drone strikes, missile launches, and asymmetric warfare tactics. The security situation in the region remains volatile, with periodic escalations involving various states. Traders should monitor credible defense and intelligence reports for developments regarding Iranian regional activities during the specified period.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Any of: Israel, US territory, followed by Any of: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and Any of: Jordan, Kurdistan Region, Bahrain, Qatar are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of May 8, 2026).