Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029?

Question

This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 54% chance (13 traders, as of Aug 2, 2026).