Will there be at least 2 people testing positive for covid at the Dagstuhl workshop?
13
43
Ṁ3.9KṀ100
resolved Jul 8
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve according to whether there are 2 or more people reporting positive covid tests among the ~40 attendees of the Dagstuhl workshop on algorithms for participatory democracy. One positive test so far! The venue provides two self tests per person during the workshop week.
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@dreev A second person tested positive this morning. There are only two reasons I'm not buying YES until 99%: (1) I'm not 99% sure that you will resolve the question to YES if the second test is negative again and (2) I don't want to be that guy winning this with inside information. (Oddly enough, I'm happy to use the inside information to not lose.)
@JensWitkowski @dreev The person who tested positive had covid last week and tested negative before coming. So the person's faint positive is a "residual" positive, probably. If that person tests negative with PCR, how do you think the market should resolve?
@DavidPennock I guess the wording is "testing positive," which they have, but this mainly reinforces how difficult it is to formulate truly verifiable questions. At GJP, we had to void around 5% of the questions (don't quote me on the precise number but it was somewhere in the ballpark) because it was unclear how these question should be resolved.
@JensWitkowski I agree, and a lunch table of people also agreed. By the letter of the contract, this market is YES