[{"id":"pmyWd9LE34ZPZHvQTP4B","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Resolved. 4.23 million square kilometers.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695819613083,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":550.7173217778787,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"oEmtCrdPApU5UA4najUq","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Last update I will do:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC update:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-21  4.333","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-22  4.327","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-21  4.206245","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-22 4.227554","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695469364072,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"ZUxIJf5b2lqXsyClyyTT","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f"},{"id":"ZUxIJf5b2lqXsyClyyTT","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Edit: New daily data from NSIDC was late today:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC shows a rise:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-20  4.251 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-21   4.333","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP showed a rise:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-20  4.19038","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-21   4.206245","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Tomorrow will be last update for me since it seems its on the rise now...","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FYMBDb3cSd2.png?alt=media&token=3034f7db-2f14-43d9-95a5-127008d1b3d2","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1695443572319,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695430110351,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"7s1jcm56tlsmOCDGqd5u","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC shows a rise:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-19  4.239 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-20  4.251","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP shows a rise:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-19   4.181598","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-20  4.19038","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I'll post the historical probabilities for just two more days (when then it's out of the window)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSiQ6HtDza8.png?alt=media&token=e5f7711c-54e1-41ad-80e8-40bcb735fbbf","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695310922618,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"NVr157Gwm3cTTqzbl9Lf","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"fDlDcWcZB9uGYTulZant","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Basically I just meant what you wrote in your first reply about drops being unlikely. Sorry if I was unclear.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695224030040,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"fDlDcWcZB9uGYTulZant","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2007 was lower on 24th than it was on 19th. that is more than 3 days but yes it is pretty much over in 3 to 5 days time. But I don't understand at all what you see in that 30% figure or what you mean by \"without considering the trends at all\".","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695214680716,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","commenterPositionShares":3479.622290953945,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"esXbYepalGSr95fSrDmX","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"7s6dAFTaDcQHX32qxN0C","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" What do you mean by \"considering the trends\"?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695213121161,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","commenterPositionShares":3479.622290953945,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"7s6dAFTaDcQHX32qxN0C","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"LWrD46qIMp3vikuxmS1W","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Yes 30 percent even without considering the trends at all does it make it likely. Put another way, intuitively when adding in the trends and that there is only 3 days left makes that 30 percent jump much higher ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1695209341414,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695208899760,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"LWrD46qIMp3vikuxmS1W","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" You say 30% (or is that 2/7?) is \"very likely\", seems a strange description of 30%..","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I say 21 of last 25 years do not show large enough drops from 19th to cause a new minimum. ~84% sounds more like \"very likely\" to me. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Vishop (JAXA) has looked very smooth this year so that showing a rise might be additional evidence that the % should be high like ~84% rather than 30%. OTOH perhaps my 84% is giving too much weight to years that have been showing a rise for several days by 19th Sept.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Only looking at the 7 year out of 44 years that do show a fall to say that a further fall of more than 0.026 is 5/7 ~70% likely seems like very bad methodology to me.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695208319105,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","commenterPositionShares":3479.622290953945,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"BCBBfqsQVjJo4uBs0wbH","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data shows a tiny drop:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-18  4.241\n2023-09-19  4.239","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP shows a rise:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-18  4.166193","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-19  4.181598","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"From the trends still looks very likely 17th will be the minimum (30% without even considering the trends or values)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-wd1ynE61r.png?alt=media&token=4f8099f4-8196-409b-954e-9ec772b8b400","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695206723012,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"B2iBU4FEYoVbg0PyjzOI","betId":"SLgEilGR9YZijRpNul4M","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"wxjdjshclP0GmqKXh6Bk","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"9/17 4.213","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"9/18 4.241","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"That's probably all she wrote. I'll make an arctic Max market soon. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","betAmount":2,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695137514358,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"oBNvkoQBwLl6CEB0pA3G","commenterPositionShares":550.7173217778787,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f"},{"id":"wxjdjshclP0GmqKXh6Bk","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Edit: Both rising....","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC: ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-17  4.213","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-18  4.241 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-17  4.141911","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-18  4.166193","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"My point forecast also shows only rising again (to 4.215)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fy9zTm8NjxV.png?alt=media&token=71262830-54ef-469e-a410-77b217ca5246","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Historically its still likely the minimum might come later if you conditionalize a certain way, but with just that small bump increase from yesterday it becomes more difficult.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1695138055363,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695137288898,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"oBNvkoQBwLl6CEB0pA3G","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"oBNvkoQBwLl6CEB0pA3G","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Chartic showing 4.234 suggests a value close to 4.239 (later shown as 4.241) about 0.026 up on yesterdays data minimum.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Only 4 of last 25 years show a subsequent drop of 0.026 (0.028) or more. Is that enough to say there is ~84% chance minimum was 17th? Or is that biased in some way?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Assuming it is later than 18th would seem a strange assumption?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1695138055160,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695122056130,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":3479.622290953945,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"IIDsfY5Q7DIjgP903anw","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data with another small drop:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-16  4.224","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-17  4.213","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP shows a small increase:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-16  4.13596","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-17  4.141911","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJN7J6_gyDT.png?alt=media&token=825edfb3-5f0c-4423-8be5-febd6aef605a","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1695033931387,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"kfxDfJOYeL4oWCvWcboZ","betId":"Of2FqTYOuP0dkMpBIbFD","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"My scatter plots do seem as if they may have changed round so that now larger recent drops seem more associated with larger further falls to minimum.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":0,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694951116722,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":3479.622290953945,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"s1gCAF3NnfocTuPylkOP","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data with another drop:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-15  4.235","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-16  4.224","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP also shows a drop:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-15  4.154314","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-16  4.13596","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FR6huQ1rGwB.png?alt=media&token=4dce66c9-6d9d-4acc-bd55-9f47731f0c9f","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694949268753,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"NysXNJSC9UOnnwveAzVR","betId":"OtaoaKpjM0bNSxKAHaqF","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"pxoLYFmoaPJR3viaRxeg","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Thanks for the reply. I would say we don't know whether the minimum is going to be after a large drop or a small drop. My scatter plots so far suggest a slight tendency for the minimum being more likely to be a small further drop after a large recent drop. But maybe that will change later in the month. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In my example 76% of minimum dates have passed. So somewhere in the region of 20%/24% seems plausible to me. 67% doesn't seem at all plausible. But that is a made up example and something data driven would be better. My mental image is one of largely noisy data and we don't know when the minimum will be other than not before the minimum so far. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Later in the month we have more data in the critical period and know that if the minimum has not already occurred it is likely to be soon so I would say our information is better not worse. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":0,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694869764002,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","commenterPositionShares":3924.5349794779822,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"pxoLYFmoaPJR3viaRxeg","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"MUUHktbhwkCr9REp0rPI","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" I'll do some experiments later today to check the second chart for different scenarios, but my ideas of them both being biased were mostly mental calculations of different scenarios where the minimum comes later in the month where both versions of the chart would report probabilities that are less and less in distribution (ie, imagining if there was a monotonically decreasing trend that went up to the 21st but with only a miniscule gap (.001) needed to drop to 4.25, then in your version I believe it would show a very high probability of it staying above 4.25 while in my version the drop would be inevitable -- by plausibility I consider the latter to be more likely but consider both to be less useful tne further the month goes on, i.e if the minimum was on the 24th both would be completely useless)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694868399009,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"MUUHktbhwkCr9REp0rPI","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"i9cEz42ltWCoTIbSo38K","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Suppose (hypothetical to try to draw out your reasoning)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"the latest data was 4.259. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"There are 25 years of comparable ice levels","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For 19 of these the minimum date is in the past, other 6 in the future","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Of the 19, 18 just rise from here on but one has dipped and gone back up by .15 then has a future fall of 0.01","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Of the 6, 4 have falls of more than 0.009 other 2 have falls of less than 0.009","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I would say 1+4=5 out of 25 years movements cause a minimum of less than 4.25. 20% chance.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Your conditionalized method says 4 out of 6 =67%","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Which is more plausible 20% or 67%?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I just don't get why you would think the 20% is also biased.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694862881060,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","commenterPositionShares":4642.108671001824,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"z82wuAOvy35vgyCPMzgo","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" I'll post here temporarily:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sept. 16 4.216","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sept. 17 4.210","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sept. 18 4.197","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sept. 19 4.215 *(the minimum for future days past the last observation)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sept. 20 4.224","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sept. 21  4.229","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FamU4wT7nCd.png?alt=media&token=9bb49eb6-0d5c-41dc-b689-14d717f7e74c","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1695443632322,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694861627616,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"UwGBGvHsoivxu5nLJfmZ","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Looks like a GUI bug.. the comments are still there it's just not loading them","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"https://manifold.markets/api/v0/comments?contractId=CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/api/v0/comments?contractId=CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Reported to discord","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694861557140,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694861343732,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"B72gWSjuIQMS6p7O1vqx","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"AnX5v4srvYsBoV6kwcG0","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Nope nothing. Looks like the load more comments on scrolling to bottom isn't working anymore (checked on another device too)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694861077375,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"AnX5v4srvYsBoV6kwcG0","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" have you tried sorting different order then going back to newest?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860925729,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","commenterPositionShares":4642.108671001824,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"HNWAxnWzlsVeR2HacVpb","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"HdDxCatAyvnCYNtUiEqe","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Weird. Well I usually have a script to watch for file size changes to all of the markets I'm interested in so I don't have to put too much effort.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860912026,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"CFhHAqNu58rhmhh77nE3","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"JbovHhLYXnkMlY4ImhJD","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I don't see the older comments ... My log of my predictions... 😭 ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860843827,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"HdDxCatAyvnCYNtUiEqe","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"o8yBIbjQ2tiNJhQB2mdO","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Only yesterday did I figure out the spreadsheet was not masie but the NSIDC product and found the ftp site for it, got set up for downloading files from ftp site and then today chartic graph updated first. lol","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860796475,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"CFhHAqNu58rhmhh77nE3","commenterPositionShares":4642.108671001824,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"o8yBIbjQ2tiNJhQB2mdO","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"0wpbQxGCXogThnFoRPoZ","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Nah.... yesterday they did update the modification time (overwrite the file) but didn't change any of the data.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860557822,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"CFhHAqNu58rhmhh77nE3","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"0wpbQxGCXogThnFoRPoZ","betId":"zzcu6MFfkigwbR5xMc59","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"CFhHAqNu58rhmhh77nE3","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" just hoping it doesn't get revised ;)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":1000,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860518721,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"CFhHAqNu58rhmhh77nE3","commenterPositionShares":4642.108671001824,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"CFhHAqNu58rhmhh77nE3","betId":"rq7WCBOO9JEbjVx46p0Y","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" You beat me in the race 😭 ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":-11.038737286128537,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694860461287,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"i9cEz42ltWCoTIbSo38K","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"KPUyOGftFYanFOShwvLo","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" I had a feeling you would say that 😂 Actually for betting since I got a mixed % for the two charts I didn't rely on it for estimating my bet size (I just put it for reference to be consistent with what data I did look at)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694781574866,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694781365312,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","commenterPositionShares":1834.6849650187132,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"KPUyOGftFYanFOShwvLo","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Seems like you are finally seeing the light and using my version betting towards ~62% 38% split rather than the near 100% for your 'conditionalized' version.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694781248191,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","commenterPositionShares":1041.8722041137312,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f"},{"id":"zzIsNe62kXH6SFND3hiP","betId":"baU2RMqg8WoHaTmt4WdY","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data with another drop to a new minimum:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-13  4.264\n2023-09-14  4.259","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP data shows a slight rise:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-13  4.165898","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-14  4.174515","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FYWCGQeRGcM.png?alt=media&token=e0143c73-3410-4b34-80c1-452e8e04c1d0","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The (conditionalized) % chart I did earlier with it falling into bins now shows 100% it falling into 4.0-4.24999 so it's not very useful here, so here is the version without the conditional (as ","type":"text"},{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" prefers)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9c7P7JINMs.png?alt=media&token=b82a8d81-0945-424d-81ca-62059bad954b","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Difference graphs (1st&2nd order look like it could go either way, but 3rd order looks like it is less likely to drop tomorrow):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FGXWBcJWuzR.png?alt=media&token=4d40e88a-cc26-4559-b7a5-b885734c13b0","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4xCl_c0wkq.png?alt=media&token=22733845-aa2b-4e40-8dd5-cfdd8f86f66b","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FlEN7DBIQcp.png?alt=media&token=9b6b8837-bc43-416a-9afa-30940d492fb9","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Arctic 2m temps don't look it will reach freezing today but its close to 0 now (so slower melt?):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0Y4kyAfopR.png?alt=media&token=73951057-9f21-4a82-8bcd-2074b51f201c","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Latest ECMWF forecast for Arctic sea ice cover ","type":"text"},{"text":"appears","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" to show it increasing over the next days (covers forecast of Sept 13-24, 1 day steps):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaiwiH79QDv.gif?alt=media&token=1f11e3c8-af34-410d-b81d-54eb70422771","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"My point forecast for adjusted min. now shows it dropping to only 4.251.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In summary, given all this, this is now more of a coin toss than I expected a couple days ago given most of the data I have collected today with most of the data showing it might stay above 4.25: the trend of drops looks like it will continue to drop ever slower, but difference graphs show it is slightly less likely to go below 4.25, eyeballing air temp suggests it might only very slowly drop over the next days, eyeballing sea ice cover shows it not dropping at all, and point forecast for the last week (with the exception of yesterday) of showing it above 4.25.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":100,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694776806782,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":1834.6849650187132,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"OqUlBrHY1ZGcslpcu9xV","betId":"nhvx8cZRS5Rs2FjopAR6","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data with a drop to a new minimum:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-12  4.350 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-13  4.264","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP data from yesterday shows a miniscule increase:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-12 4.16349","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-13 4.165898","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDs6V36ceom.png?alt=media&token=0b20f465-98d6-4074-94cd-61551f3bbad3","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fd7BYp5Jbi0.png?alt=media&token=64c9c72e-6f86-4628-80f9-4c080a5f0073","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMl3InAlAOf.png?alt=media&token=d5706bfb-308c-4ae4-b4ab-3d341d269c4b","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fw_TP6Cfmqe.png?alt=media&token=3bb47a7d-db00-4af0-84c3-fbb84a6c4298","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRfvnsi5kgU.png?alt=media&token=be647dce-b395-478e-891a-b7798cffca27","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Based on the above charts (especially the difference graphs) and forecasts about the sea ice cover and air temperature I think it's more likely now it will go below 4.25.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":-141.0683757226783,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694688405677,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":1442.6077359333212,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"LyZnuquaL9VLkPDrMXSg","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Eyeballing the ice cover forecast and the 2m air temperature trends (looking like it might reach 0C around 16th) it looks they line up having 15-16th as the latest days to reach a new minimum (this is only a very impoverished amount of guesswork considering the variables that impact melt so take it with a grain of salt).","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694661942157,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"m0On3scxHo0nlfrawfC2","commenterPositionShares":2242.6077359333217,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"oIE1jgHvvMeS62eRvZ4V","betId":"FOYPiPN6t13zJf63IR4W","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Grr chartic graph did display 4.307 but has now revised to 4.342. No spreadsheet with new data yet, wonder if it might revise again.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":6.4811501508773866,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694613376116,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":1463.8722041137312,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"DzX7kwr8cr3tfTo5SaWT","betId":"pygn4PydhYA0hOw7zbn9","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"No time for a long post now..","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data, shows a rise ...","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-11  4.282\n2023-09-12  4.350","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"(Edit:) ViSHOP shows another drop:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-11   4.191411","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-12  4.16349","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Difference graph shows if the minimum has not yet been reached, it's unlikely to come tomorrow.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2bXuO-zaoa.png?alt=media&token=a1946316-e957-47ec-a9cc-2446372a3dbe","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCsgOEBbrw9.png?alt=media&token=5f2de25f-d8ea-4518-beaa-3f3a5d9f3c9e","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhHD5ckUoYo.png?alt=media&token=b2d4f056-c393-4fb7-b33b-3c3ef792b85f","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":100,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694614539130,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694612911527,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":2242.6077359333217,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"02BE0HiI17Gnm1pmIKZ4","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"4wMk0pZG0E6KxvlLzull","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Yes, but the bias gets worse for both ways of doing the calculation the more days pass without reaching the minimum — as for the second chart in the version I just did the movements up or down after the minimum for those excluded years don’t matter at all as they automatically count towards the 4.25-4.5 bin since there are only rises from then on (they just simply get added to the total count). If the minimum this year was for instance at the very end of the month the second and third charts in either calculation would be much less useful, especially in comparison to a chart like the differences graphs.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694570471978,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694570422317,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"6LIIQBL3ria6qfrF5lUq","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"4wMk0pZG0E6KxvlLzull","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"AtQx11kf7CrM03VEHwqj","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" I can accept this as reasonable early in September where most years have a later minimum. Yes we know the minimum wasn't on 10th Sept or earlier this year but we don't know it isn't the 11th Sept. Perhaps consistent falls in JAXA data makes this unlikely.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"As we get further into September then you seem to be using smaller subsets of years, the ones with falls to decide that further drops are likely. Do you see that this bias gets worse and worse as we get further into September?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I don't really see the bias the other way. While minimum may have passed in some years but are the movements after latest data date unrepresentative of those days?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694568071862,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"6LIIQBL3ria6qfrF5lUq","commenterPositionShares":371.22729867390655,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"AtQx11kf7CrM03VEHwqj","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"N1ys0q9rSuF315NW2iQs","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Yes, in the second and third charts above the day of the minimum must be after the last observation date to be included ... otherwise I couldn't use the difference from the last observation to the historical years' minimums as a drop since the difference would instead be a \"rise\", i.e. a rise from that minimum on 2016. As I mentioned before with respect to the third chart this is conditionalizing on the assumption that the minimum will be ","type":"text"},{"text":"after","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" the last observation date. There is a bias either way: if I don't conditionalize this is including days for years where the minimum fell early in August and are least representative in that sense, and not including them will also bias the data towards 4.0-4.2499.  For you I did a one time version of the chart you might prefer that does include those years where the minimum was on/prior to the observation date:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHTAFQJSALZ.png?alt=media&token=a0a67301-8843-4f9b-b114-54dc2fb0538a","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694566460135,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"6LIIQBL3ria6qfrF5lUq","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f"},{"id":"N1ys0q9rSuF315NW2iQs","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"6LIIQBL3ria6qfrF5lUq","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" I have 2016 showing no further decline from this date so I am counting that year's movements as in favour of over 4.25. What is your methodology now? Is that year ignored?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694562100251,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"6LIIQBL3ria6qfrF5lUq","commenterPositionShares":371.22729867390655,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"6LIIQBL3ria6qfrF5lUq","betId":"QgbbKiiv77yQQllKWG4s","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Another drop for both NSIDC and ViSHOP","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-10 4.332","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-11  4.282","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP (a small drop):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-10 4.205662","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-11  4.191411 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"From the differences graph it looks likely to go below 4.25 in the next day or two.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCyAVhnx1mg.png?alt=media&token=98ff9852-2285-46c4-af33-987f0dbd1656","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fgf0dHWTcmj.png?alt=media&token=b853be92-46ce-4d43-93fc-47d2499dcf1f","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKTKoV-nW-l.png?alt=media&token=e02d9d1c-d3dd-400b-8d17-49a00dd307cf","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":-100.68248653056199,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694515316231,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","likes":0},{"id":"m0On3scxHo0nlfrawfC2","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-snow-sic?base_time=202309111200&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202309161800","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-snow-sic?base_time=202309111200&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202309161800","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Eyeballing sea ice cover as a proxy for extent it looks like the minimum could come as late as the 16th…","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694473748896,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":685.3094208224353,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"d5vS5Upcblo1wvHDvKjn","betId":"uknLkN9Ta3cPD8jhmfRP","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New NSIDC data show a miniscule drop:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-09  4.335\n2023-09-10  4.332","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP has also dropped:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-09  4.220786","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-10   4.205662","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This has increased my probabilities for 4.25-4.5, but with 4.0-4.2499 still being slightly more likely.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbLN5Yz44gh.png?alt=media&token=535cd02d-a237-417d-8338-8a7596b80e87","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7SwaKMC-rH.png?alt=media&token=4b459412-dcfd-4860-9ff1-c489504d7f9d","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"First order differences for NSIDC show it's not likely to drop below 4.25 tomorrow","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fsy2ktiauyV.png?alt=media&token=16bb61bd-2fa1-492c-b738-fd23b310037b","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":20,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694441918748,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694441816544,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":685.3094208224353,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"qHb0IYujpR1BZ1aXRCk6","betId":"fljkgcIhO7N6vmu3o1gv","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"K7tu6mpPy4u31vu4WVEL","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Warm storms, generally warm air, choppy seas, and wind, plus fragile, thin ice.  Terrible conditions.  Don't know if we see another drop like that but I certainly don't think we're done yet.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","betAmount":-8.453051693226005,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694343475083,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"K7tu6mpPy4u31vu4WVEL","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","likes":0},{"id":"K7tu6mpPy4u31vu4WVEL","betId":"qrKDWnS2z8efIpzaYROo","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"A significant drop in the NSIDC data putting it below my predictions... looks like 4-4.25 is more likely given the drop, even though my point estimate shows otherwise. Data from ViSHOP already has it below 4.25 now...","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-09  4.335","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-09  4.220786","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FfhAGzlE4-O.png?alt=media&token=0b2cc681-9394-4952-9c69-e72a5e27c0e8","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":100,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694342462488,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694342280780,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":660.5243553167548,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f"},{"id":"izMoWkoQ0kXlBzFL5Fvm","betId":"KrYnXtFg1yTfoqKvtczZ","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Another dip for both datasets:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"NSIDC:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-08 : 4.412","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"ViSHOP (JAXA):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2023-09-08 : 4.256765 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Using the last 15 years of NSIDC its a coin toss, but considering all the other historical data it is more likely it won't go below 4.25:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FH4TAZ1Cz3k.png?alt=media&token=9c0648d1-70bb-458b-9ca7-8a852a8c4bda","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Looking at the temperature differences for the ViSHOP data it seems likely it will go below 4.25, at least in the ViSHOP dataset, in the next day (or two at most) :","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FVqyXkysuew.png?alt=media&token=b168462a-4395-4951-b2d9-1ac0531dc073","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5CG0equvVC.png?alt=media&token=925cf68f-4d97-4c13-8f80-3d21d8601e2f","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-4Wk55Z4E1.png?alt=media&token=790189ca-503f-468a-91e7-33ea0aece86b","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Given the conflicting data and probabilities I've hedged and bought some 4.00-4.25.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Edit: Historical probabilities (NSIDC data) of minimum falling on each day (using latest observations to exclude  days that can't be the minimum)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxI6s4wKqnu.png?alt=media&token=bf588555-0502-4a34-8aec-d6f99260ad99","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":70,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694256649920,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694256353578,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":710.1743140271524,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"kWIIx3h6Uk11uF9GM2Kj","betId":"MTEXkh6LipjFDvTerHsx","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"vJVkKfJPKKF4eTONncLp","label":"ScottSupak"}},{"text":" Did some day over differences data on the JAXA data. It matches the intuition below that going below 4.25 tomorrow (just for JAXA data) is less likely than not just considering day over day differences and the last day's difference; considering 2nd order and 3rd order difference trends (similar to acceleration, jerkiness) which look at the differences over the last 2 days and 3 days, it seems even less likely. Horizontal yellow line is the threshold for 4.25 million sq.km and horizontal red line is the threshold for 4.00 million sq.km. This data is most useful for forecasting one day in advance whether the threshold will be crossed (I used this concept in the global monthly temperature records for last month).  The red series line is for 2023 and shows, yes, the trend is that it is  getting closer to the minimum.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDcah4xpdlz.png?alt=media&token=0624fe84-fef7-449b-8b3f-1771bcd7e908","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRtRu1St6zh.png?alt=media&token=d2e796b9-49b7-4697-9eb0-c43524fceb36","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9DWjeHInc4.png?alt=media&token=c54adee4-5653-4fed-a06b-72bdf35a8c42","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694191814421,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694191578347,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"vJVkKfJPKKF4eTONncLp","commenterPositionShares":710.1743140271524,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"vJVkKfJPKKF4eTONncLp","isApi":false,"likes":2,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The higher-resolution JAXA sat is still showing a drop, so this could be a false bottom, but definitely a sign of slowing here. Going to take some anomalous events to get this below 4.25","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Jaxa/NSIDC/dif","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCaEuSOYiKy.png?alt=media&token=55807d33-3727-4971-9562-0d06938d618b","title":null}}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694182419829,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c"},{"id":"oOm9YExYAl1u3qcnfVMm","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"bq07SnlWu1Jpz1XXFjy0","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Intuitively with just these last two observations, I feel this is the start of the bouncing up and down near the minimum more than a small blip in a downward trend that will continue. Here are the probabilities, that in part, back that intuition up, by considering whether there will be a drop tomorrow, by considering the special case of two successive increases and then a drop the next day for all Septembers in the daily data (September 3-30 looking back prior two days for all years)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"codeBlock","attrs":{"language":null},"content":[{"text":"Looking at each obs day and previous two obs days (Starting from each September 3 looking back two days):\nDays counted: 1265\nPrior two days with successive increases: 469\nHow rare are two successive increases in September: 37.08 %\nPrior two days with successive increases and a drop on obs day with two increases: 102 \nWill there be a drop tomorrow?: 21.75 %","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694180378832,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"bq07SnlWu1Jpz1XXFjy0","commenterPositionShares":575.4551619491787,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"G9rSavtxZ0Sym5zOMOrF","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"jMftTRBU6ByNGQmn28XM","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" I was just only referencing the point based forecast of which I keep a log below in the comments (","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/ScottSupak/what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min#4FKgASmbkMDxS3pFinON","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/ScottSupak/what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min#4FKgASmbkMDxS3pFinON","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":") (it doesn't really have any regularization penalty for seasonality while trying to keep the forecast data close to observed (I have to do some to final adjustments for discontinuities though since it doesn't keep it close enough so the graph in that comment is the adjusted one))","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694177196401,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":575.4551619491787,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"jMftTRBU6ByNGQmn28XM","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"3DoqpSEfrNXyJ3hfhtME","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Re \"My minimum forecast for the future is now slightly above the last observed minimum for this year so far,\"","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"That initially sounded to me like the probability of over 4.25 should be over 99%. Is this based on some average movement so just one expected forecast? One such average expected forecast does not  help much with the probabilities whereas 10+ forecasts are more useful. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Of last 25 years","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Following 2005 movements from current level,  I get 4.179","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Following 2010 movements I get 4.235","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Following 2014 movements I get 4.242","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Following 2018 movements I get 4.247","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Following 2019 movements I get 4.216","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"These 5 forecasts are below 4.25, but most only just. Just a slight further rise (or less fall than those big drop years) will change (4? of) them to a higher bin forecast. So it looks like it doesn't take much to change 80% chance of over 4.25 into a 96%. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Chances of below 4 look very slim. 98% chance here perhaps isn't too far off but perhaps it is a better bet on the other question where it was only 84% recently but I have now pushed it up to 96%. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694176777042,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":371.22729867390655,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"3DoqpSEfrNXyJ3hfhtME","betId":"5266r4ODpj1NpVzQEOFZ","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"q6lCrfTpZWdTqF8e0AQW","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Updating the charts. My minimum forecast for the future is now slightly above the last observed minimum for this year so far, and since this now agrees with the below based charts, all together I believe this should increase my probabilities in > 4.25 by at least 1-5% from yesterday.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXltwN9Zd25.png?alt=media&token=9f802a5c-f87d-4ed8-86fd-64ddb24ff33a","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrPIAGQoycA.png?alt=media&token=1a1462d3-cc39-4a72-8e3c-5a12fa9d2c1a","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694173734774,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":575.4551619491787,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"bq07SnlWu1Jpz1XXFjy0","betId":"nj05OgV30orPWKj46cVU","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Very small further increase from 4.453 to 4.458.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"While this is only small, does it change our probabilities?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Last 16 years 12 stay above 4.25 75% unchanged from yesterday","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Weighted values 7.11 out of 9.36  76% up from 73%","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I weighted by ice level. An alternative weighting scheme might be to weight by similar pattern eg amount of increases the year has had. This would quite possibly give greater weight to years where the minimum had passed. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Removing such years not only downweights them but does so in the extreme to 0 weighting, whereas I am wondering about upweighting them. At some point removing them has got to seem wrong?    ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":32,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694171775956,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":371.22729867390655,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"UHNV3wCTYeDCVfdKkPuU","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"VbCriU2oWigQLZIuklfW","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Interesting idea. Note that the JAXA (higher resolution) sat had a drop, so this could just be a resolution issue on the lower-res NSIDC satellite. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694095037372,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","likes":0},{"id":"VbCriU2oWigQLZIuklfW","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"q6lCrfTpZWdTqF8e0AQW","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Rather than weighting each year equally, we could assign a weight according to how close the ice extent is now to the level on todays date for the previous year.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Not sure of the most appropriate weights to use. I tried 0.3/(0.3+abs(ice extent difference))","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In last 25 years I ended up with weights of 6.86 out of 9.38 or approx 73% for over 4.25 which is no a lot different from looking at last 16 years where 12 of 16 years are for over 4.25 or 75%.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"So not sure this is of much help.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694094916672,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":319.7613698988972,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"q6lCrfTpZWdTqF8e0AQW","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"zWRGL2JgihWkNVj7o1dC","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Yeah that makes sense to me considering how much the probabilities shifted in the above chart vs yesterday. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Here is a chart of the (conditional) historical probabilities that the minimum will fall on (it is conditional since I have excluded days that are impossible for the minimum to fall on for 2023 so far, and am assuming the minimum will fall on one of the days it has already fallen on in the past (it could fall on September 28 for instance and that would not be accounted for)). This will only be more useful updating on I think if the temperature doesn't drop too much or goes up and down repeatedly.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdD9GLVkIXu.png?alt=media&token=61d199df-13c0-4d5a-8ab8-0ad22e4d6834","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694090816926,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":500.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"zWRGL2JgihWkNVj7o1dC","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":">That up tick is normal variation I think though, wouldn't call it \"big\"","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Yes it isn't huge as a daily movement. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"However, in term of how much effect it should have on our probabilities:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":".044 gain today vs bin size of 0.25 and expected drop of around 0.2 ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"so ~1/6 of a bin size or ~1/5 of the expected drop.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The gain has to be lost again before this years minimum moves down at all.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If weather for melting tends to stick around for a few days causing visible wobbles away from trend, does a single day of gain after a few of relatively large losses for time of year signal a change that may persist for a few days?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"So should it have \"big\" effect changing our probabilities? I think so, but obviously could be wrong if there is a bigger loss tomorrow.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694085391685,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":319.7613698988972,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"O9oBITVGQCQO4xcwlJym","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"JCkVWWtQjXKYvVGOVARJ","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Using new data... the analysis I did yesterday seems very sensitive to small changes, so I think I was correct so far in not shifting my probabilities.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FPw-PUtUkQB.png?alt=media&token=304e4708-fe87-4665-adb5-a69d4433ddcb","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694083926083,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":500.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"KtlBg2GhtuDYb6wMk1ig","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"JCkVWWtQjXKYvVGOVARJ","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" What \"if\"? 😂  Then I don't read that and continue working on my other current project. That up tick is normal variation I think though, wouldn't call it \"big\"","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694083757465,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694083716565,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":500.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"JCkVWWtQjXKYvVGOVARJ","betId":"El90AELhvcSYekWTre36","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" And if we have a big increase like to 4.453 then ?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":51,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694083404213,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","commenterPositionShares":319.7613698988972,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"MEFNQWLyj0V8Iv5yhdRn","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Reading material for tomorrow if the drop continues...","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ice-melting-dipole-arctic-oscillation","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ice-melting-dipole-arctic-oscillation","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694055113106,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":500.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"Qn99IiF9NfglUgA2zjLj","betId":"psixIpLcOuD2SMQ8bfWx","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Yes into heuristics now:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Recent years, which are better proxies, seem to slightly favour 4-4.249 but","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Large recent drops may favour small drop to minimum so favours 4.25-4.499","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Trend towards earlier minimum dates (probably with low ice levels rather than time?) may also favour 4.25-4.499 ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":14,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694012521789,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":239.60273903270394,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f"},{"id":"RHcoushIyHxBO8UHiGRJ","betId":"Mg9Mg1xcFZAoFzthzUV3","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"3zh0AG4mL0O8nvHfzNxl","label":"ScottSupak"}},{"text":" That was a good observation and I mostly confirmed it below. Now I don't know how to assign my probabilities, since now there is disagreement between my two estimates -- before they were both in the same bin and now they are split. Instead, I've just decided to lower my bet by selling shares equally.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Here are the probabilities using a combination of your idea and the type of calculation I was doing earlier (assuming the minimum will be after 09-05 and excluding years where the minimum was earlier)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fb59hNErUSQ.png?alt=media&token=07e5b181-c135-4777-83c7-ff7069999a19","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":-50.96957956129786,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694011534687,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694011079006,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":500.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"LHwp8sWCWkG1j3ohkF5q","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"3zh0AG4mL0O8nvHfzNxl","label":"ScottSupak"}},{"text":" Could also look at PIOMAS data for volume as that might also give you an additional data and then you can bet on my market 🙂","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/parhizj/arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-september","frameBorder":0}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009793276,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":600.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"z3zVMDPJ7MYKR2JfmwhG","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Kalshi \"under 4.2\" contract shows 33% chance.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"https://kalshi.com/markets/arcticicemin/arctic-sea-ice-extent-min#arcticicemin-23oct01","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://kalshi.com/markets/arcticicemin/arctic-sea-ice-extent-min#arcticicemin-23oct01","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3e1872n0zr.png?alt=media&token=52e7b982-3de6-4ffb-a614-0d5863699491","title":null}}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009643348,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","likes":0},{"id":"3zh0AG4mL0O8nvHfzNxl","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"0O4hcfjqgjd1OuMnLOPS","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Oh, I'm aware! Also, historical analysis only gets you so far. Still have to look at conditions up there. Warmth, storms, waves, warm water from underneath, etc. Warm today. Warm tomorrow. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FYGiOSve3tb.png?alt=media&token=e9d2f172-6664-4396-8db2-976670a81fa9","title":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_RL5866z7Z.png?alt=media&token=2405cb48-36a8-4a6b-ac6b-240c0e6abf1f","title":null}}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009368757,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","likes":0},{"id":"jU2wdqotJpHUakgYipzl","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"19-22 is only 3 years, not much averaging so could show value that is well away from normal expectation. Perhaps better to show for 2008-2022 15 years and for half of that 7 or 8 years?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009330043,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543","likes":0},{"id":"wWfO68UenKhZIXWZgijm","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"0O4hcfjqgjd1OuMnLOPS","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Was confused since there were no leading digits for years","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009302983,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":600.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"0O4hcfjqgjd1OuMnLOPS","betId":"E1aIcYdoEtwt0azM6MHK","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"vfpU3LX0xzXMnnWySPa1","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" The more recent the data you use, the lower the value you get. 09-22 bucks this trend. The arctic sea ice was very different before ~2007 (lots of multiyear ice harder to melt), so years before that are not as good a proxy as more recent years.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":1,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009155208,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543"},{"id":"R3J85fls7n9Ss8P7oopJ","betId":"vW8nY2CZCHL7DzrQQFj3","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"vfpU3LX0xzXMnnWySPa1","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" If daily change is the same as the average daily change of 79-22, 89-22, etc, then result","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","betAmount":10,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694009098332,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c"},{"id":"vfpU3LX0xzXMnnWySPa1","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","label":"ScottSupak"}},{"text":" Not sure how to read that ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694008921625,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","commenterPositionShares":600.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"tvSkNzxOmSt8NExx7YjN","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"if daily Δ 79-22:\t4.3038","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"if daily Δ 89-22:\t4.2986","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"if daily Δ 99-22:\t4.2703","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"if daily Δ 09-22:\t4.2828","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"if daily Δ 19-22:\t4.2270","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694007030048,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":673.1158546389379,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c"},{"id":"VEbBR0gJZQ1I9otpMqGl","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Still not sure. Does a large recent drop mean increased chance of only a small subsequent drop to minimum?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FTQGPTd0H5w.png?alt=media&token=b9fa8dd1-8949-4231-8fe3-d6bebd65cb95","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If there is such an effect it is not what you would expect from general shape approaching minimum. Perhaps it relies more on the wriggles away from trend - if there has been a steep decline then it will likely even out with a slower than typical decline.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Perhaps it is just random.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694006822561,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694006545482,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543"},{"id":"rrQP2JYmAfmF5Sed5XvL","betId":"EydqyrGgJRzc5Je0bgA7","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New daily data for 09-05 has another drop (-0.041 C from yesterday). Looks like there will be more drops to come. Eliminating days before 09-06:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFRU4RZkZxm.png?alt=media&token=85affb77-c968-4d44-a29a-ca4057c27c95","title":null}},{"type":"codeBlock","attrs":{"language":null},"content":[{"text":"39 years\n       > 4.25   : 51.28%  (20)\n  4.0 to 4.2499 : 46.15%  (18)\n       < 4.0    : 2.56%   (1)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":10,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1694003223760,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":600.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"45GwTu7AlJoim0dJOSrX","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"D46OOl3n2BPkJ4rUsCgu","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Well maybe. If that is your opinion on sensible methodology.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I did take a quick look at whether losses in last few days might be useful predictor of whether there is likely to be a large or small drop to the minimum but it looked like there was too much noise for the signal (if there is any signal). This obviously doesn't prove there is no signal.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693925117832,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543","likes":0},{"id":"D46OOl3n2BPkJ4rUsCgu","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"F2nW9n5CUpn1ksXfw4WU","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" looking at the trend it seems very unlikely the minimum for 2023 will be yesterday (09-04) so it makes sense for me to exclude them from the calculations ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693924394017,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":695.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"F2nW9n5CUpn1ksXfw4WU","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"cAnXWjbb7RVN2YktOGqp","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" These years are likely years with low drops from the latest data date. Excluding them seems to bias your calculation?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Personally think you can/should still do movements from latest data data which may or may not have subsequent dips from the latest data date even if they don't get to a new minimum.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693924187952,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543","likes":0},{"id":"cAnXWjbb7RVN2YktOGqp","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Highlighted them (blue) in my excel sheet to double check (orange are 09-02 to 09-04, and yellow are the years 1987, 1995, 1997):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FE4lNBXAohU.png?alt=media&token=c094006d-7132-4d65-a608-950675ad64d8","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693923884949,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":695.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"iUc7EYd8F1EJW0gaiyde","betId":"5YyeK85piULBMgafPe6E","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"GnHvwQHzJaDYKWnpLWl9","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" As I mentioned on the last line, I am assuming the minimum is after 09-04, so three years are excluded (since the minimum fell between 09-02 to 09-04 for those years)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":-28.096013034500142,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693923398250,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":695.7785591069082,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7"},{"id":"GnHvwQHzJaDYKWnpLWl9","betId":"AWNhsaJ9UWesd4rYL53D","isApi":false,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" Why are some years missing from graph namely 1997 1995 1987 ?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"(1979 - 2022 = 44 years not 41)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sorry hadn't read the edit. Personally think you can still do movements from latest data data which may or may not have subsequent dips from the latest data date even if they don't get to a new minimum.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":7,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1693923678174,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"9d4ac6da4d1f","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693923118800,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543","likes":0},{"id":"pWmBDjee7KmsSlLIejqt","betId":"aWnPw2SktPXO5x61whe1","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In addition to the simple naive historical adjusted prediction, today I computed the differences between the last observation of each year (of the day of the last observation for this year, i.e. 09-04 for each year) and that year's minimum to see what the range of differences was for each year this far from the minimum. Based on the last observation from this year, computing the difference between it and each category: below yellow line falls into the 4.25+ category, between yellow and red falls into the 4.0 - 4.2499 category, and above the red line falls into the below 4.0 category).  (Edit: I am assuming the minimum will be after 09-04 so I've excluded years where the minimum is before 09-05):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUWe2qmv5R8.png?alt=media&token=130fb41c-e406-4eb8-a778-48e0f466abb6","title":null}},{"type":"codeBlock","attrs":{"language":null},"content":[{"text":"41 years\n       > 4.25   : 60.98%  (25)\n  4.0 to 4.2499 : 36.59%  (15)\n       < 4.0    : 2.44%   (1)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1693922407947,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693921826564,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":780.0573033244625,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"mXQAC832DsH6mK9vnUik","betId":"IaujeVMif274tkwaK0OV","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"What day will the minimum be? Edit: Hopefully this is correct now:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOXHKTS1zEl.png?alt=media&token=b42735bf-de8d-4cf7-a72b-d66d36ffb549","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1693918720016,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693916009190,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":629.0438024545903,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"4FKgASmbkMDxS3pFinON","betId":"C8kx9uh1dnHl27O94F7F","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Edit: Going to keep a log in single comment. Adjusting for discontinuity in my historical analysis, my forecast mins are:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"(Forecast date: Min)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Aug 27: 4.414","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Aug 29: 4.429","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 2: 4.361","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 3: 4.371","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 4: 4.332","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 5: 4.335","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 6: 4.313","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 7: 4.375","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 8: 4.416 * (this is the minimum after observations) (Minimum on Sep 5 is below this at 4.409)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 9: 4.364","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 10: 4.283","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 11: 4.256","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 12: 4.314 ** (if the minimum was set on Sept 11 with the observation of 4.282, this might from now on be more of a log of what the lowest value will be in the remaining days of August and in turn might just reduce to a predictor of the next day's values)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 13: 4.218","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 14: 4.251\n","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Point forecast graph (ignore the error bars as they are not useful):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcDSy9mqhQf.png?alt=media&token=d6df868e-0f68-4d73-9f79-fd464d1e6a71","title":null}}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":8,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","editedTime":1694776843305,"visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1693132808248,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":276.97227042579135,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"e05e09849848","likes":0},{"id":"hhkQ7I3TIsHPcgDdKhdV","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"obLwHavOmDb5N1PjX7xu","label":"ScottSupak"}},{"text":" I wasn't sure whether masie was a slightly different produce as well as possible 5 day trailing mean effect.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"https://nsidc.org/data/masie/about-masie","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://nsidc.org/data/masie/about-masie","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"\"MASIE-NH stands for the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere. It is similar to the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Sea Ice Index","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" (SII) product in that it is easy to use and gives a graphical view of ice extent in various formats. However, it relies more on visible imagery ","type":"text"},{"text":"than on passive microwave data","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":", so the ice edge position will generally be more accurate than that of the Sea Ice Index.\"","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"My bold italics.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Whereas","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"\"Data and images shown in Charctic use passive microwave data\"","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1692911172260,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543"},{"id":"obLwHavOmDb5N1PjX7xu","betId":"qSb3liifPbPVNlEPQyRA","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"YZHRxMwQKtUKVZ8PzEaj","label":"ChristopherRandles"}},{"text":" Ah, yes, the chart uses a 5-day trailing mean. And I wanted tighter brackets for a more accurate prediction. Thank you.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","betAmount":5,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"da5efeae4c8c","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1692910491645,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","commenterPositionShares":201.61372725708,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"YZHRxMwQKtUKVZ8PzEaj","betId":"5xnu1644sHv2bs9mem9Q","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"DBqV57K68vLZ3E7cKdLs","label":"ScottSupak"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/connorwilliams97/what-will-be-the-summer-2023-arctic","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/connorwilliams97/what-will-be-the-summer-2023-arctic","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"linkPreview","attrs":{"id":"11d17de6-ef85-4104-8ea8-af75d4854461","url":"https://manifold.markets/connorwilliams97/what-will-be-the-summer-2023-arctic","image":"https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=What+will+be+the+summer+2023+Arctic+sea+ice+minimum+extent%2C+in+millions+of+square+km%3F&numTraders=6&volume=200&probability=45%25&creatorName=Connor+Williams&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa%2FAGNmyxaj4b_D5S5flbIUIo2546Y4RwhMd2k4ZbMq_Fz8%3Ds96-c&topAnswer=4&points=","title":"What will be the summer 2023 Arctic sea ice minimum extent, in millions of square km?","inputKey":"comment CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","deleteNode":null,"description":"Round down; for instance, 2,950,000 sq km goes into the \"2\" bucket and 3,000,000 sq km goes into the \"3\" bucket.\n\nResolution will be based on this interactive graph tool: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/","deleteCallback":null,"hideCloseButton":false}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Summer doesn't seem to be defined there. It may, or may not, be lowest daily value. That one is based on the graph linked here which I think seems marginally different to the data that this question uses.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Christopher Randles","betAmount":137,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"b72544d4e543","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1692842266952,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ChristopherRandles","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","commenterPositionShares":140.00555845458618,"commenterPositionOutcome":"NO","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543"},{"id":"DBqV57K68vLZ3E7cKdLs","isApi":false,"userId":"8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","label":"parhizj"}},{"text":" I looked for an extent market but couldn't find one other than the \"will it be a record low\" one.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Scott Supak","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1692211294679,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"ScottSupak","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","replyToCommentId":"XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","commenterPositionShares":101.36400433482603,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"103238cab6e7","likes":0},{"id":"XTTY7SDwHG5b9LOHoXlY","betId":"bQGVnpzPEuPdlFSv8Aj2","isApi":false,"userId":"APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Even though I’ve guessed at 4.83 recently in the other market there is a tiny anomaly of at least 0.1C between last observation (from last analysis) and the yhat for the next day in my purely history based prediction, so I am using a guess for yhat that is adjusted down for more than that amount (4.73 or less). There is a lot of uncertainty this far out for me.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"JRP","betAmount":11,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"CYPrZbZhJQKViMRgVVFZ","visibility":"public","betAnswerId":"e05e09849848","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1692209873406,"contractSlug":"what-will-be-the-arctic-sea-ice-min","userUsername":"parhizj","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8","contractQuestion":"What will be the Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2023?","commenterPositionShares":104.53960138195845,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES","commenterPositionAnswerId":"b72544d4e543","likes":0}]