ZanyEconomist's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -7.35
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when ZanyEconomist bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
- In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?YESṀ20
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?NOṀ10
- Will Riffusion trigger a significant opposition from musicians somewhat comparable to the one Stable Diffusion received from visual artists?NOṀ10
40%
50%
- Will the Eagles win the coin toss before Super Bowl 57?NOṀ15
- Will Kevin McCarthy endorse Donald Trump for President before the 2024 Iowa Caucuses?YESṀ10
- Will the IMF raise its estimate of the world's real GDP percentage change in 2022 relative to 2021 in its first 2023 World Economic Outlook?YESṀ10
60%
70%
- 10) Many billions of dollars of new investment commitments will be announced to build chip manufacturing facilities in the United States as the U.S. makes contingency plans for Taiwan.NOṀ10
- Will Q4 US GDP growth be above 3%?NOṀ10
- In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?YESṀ10
80%