Tripping's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.27
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tripping bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will a Dr. Mario player be in the top 40 of the 2023 Super Smash Bros Melee year-end top 100 player rankings?YESṀ93
- Will Liam Kings break the Super Mario 64 120 Star world record before the 2-year anniversary of his last world record?NOṀ80
- Will a vtuber from VSPO! be in the winning team of Apex Legends tournament VSaikyo 5?YESṀ60
80%
90%
95%
97%