Tommy Eagle's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.66
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tommy Eagle bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
40%
- Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before April 1 2023?NOṀ10
- Will it be possible for members of the public to post tweets of ≥1000 characters on Twitter by the end of February?YESṀ10
- Will it be possible for members of the public to post tweets of ≥1000 characters on Twitter by the end of February?YESṀ10
50%
60%
70%