Will Harris become president before the end of Biden's term AND win the 2024 election for president?
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Doesn't matter how she ascends to the presidency, only that she does. Will her time in office battle-harden her and lead to an incumbent advantage going into the election?
Resolves NO if she doesn't become president before the end of Biden's term, doesn't get nominated, or doesn't win the 2024 elections.
If she does it backwards: wins the election and then becomes president before the end of Biden's term, that's still enough for YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1 - shouldn't the market close date be at the end of Biden's term rather than the election?
2 - I'm not sure how much of an advantage incumbents have over former presidents. The very small sample size, N = 2, shows both incumbents losing. (And in one of them the comeback president also lost, in 1912.)