Resolution Criteria

Resolves based on what probability I assign to the Bnei Menashe descending from a tribe of the ancient Kingdom of Israel on 2026-05-01.

As of 2025-11-01, my knowledge of this subject comes entirely from skimming the Wikipedia page. My current estimate is somewhere in the 20-50% range.

I will try to read any evidence posted in comments, although I probably won’t spend more than one hour per week on it. I have no expertise in any relevant subject. I have no personal attachment to a conclusion in either direction. I won’t trade on this question.

Background

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bnei_Menashe

The Bnei Menashe are a community of Indian Jews from various Tibeto-Burmese ethnic groups from the border of India and Burma who claim descent from one of the Lost Tribes of Israel. Israel did not formally support immigration of the Bnei Menashe until 2005, when Rabbi Shlomo Amar, then Sephardi Chief Rabbi of Israel, recognized the Bnei Menashe as a lost tribe. However, the scientific evidence is contested. In 2003–2004, DNA testing of several hundred male community members did not yield conclusive evidence of Middle Eastern ancestry. In 2005, a Kolkata-based study found evidence of maternally descended Near Eastern ancestry but suggested the findings were an artifact of thousands of years of intermarriage between peoples of the Near and Middle East.