Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
59
327
resolved Feb 24
Resolved
YES
This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. Feb 3, 11:53am: as a ref: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/ Feb 22, 11:26am: I'm still waiting for the metaculus question to resolve before resolving this market.
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I am aware that a large number of Ukrainians also fled their homes as a result of the war that Russia started on their soil. I'm happy I found https://nhukr.org/help-for-children/ where I may learn how to assist these people and their kids. I am aware that numerous individuals are already taking part in this procedure.

bought Ṁ10 of NO
thing*, I can't spell
sold Ṁ0 of YES
Metaculus comments say that if Russia only enters territories already controlled LNR/DNR (the only think that has been confirmed so far), the question resolves NO.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I would say that missclick is less likely than 5%
bought Ṁ1 of NO
The payout on $M 1 is over 2000 percent which is the highest I have ever seen on Manifold. The chance that the market resolver accidentally clicks the wrong market resolve button is worth the payout on $M 1.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
"buy were they de facto occupied by Russia?" - yes But note that question is supposed to resolve on "announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine" condition.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Are DNR and LNR "areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021"? They were clearly occupied, buy were they de facto occupied by Russia?
sold Ṁ30 of NO
https://twitter.com/karoldarmoros/status/1496006601303597062 Poland’s minister of defense @mblaszczak: we can confirm that Russian forces entered on the territory of so-called ‘republics’. So they violated Ukraine’s borders @RadiowaJedynka
bought Ṁ500 of YES
Putin announced he would move troops into "independent regions" of Ukraine.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-the-question-russian-invasion

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