Will the US economy grow in 2023?
462
closes 2024
84%
chance

Real GDP, according to BEA advance estimate in Jan '24.

Closing date/time is estimated, and will update to reflect the scheduled data release time.

https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

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na_pewno avatar
na pewnois predicting YES at 68%

Salem center markets seem to estimate slightly above 2% real GDP growth in Q1.

YonatanCale avatar
Yonatan Cale

Why is this not at ~95%? Is the US economy at risk for shrinking? (??)

YonatanCale avatar
Yonatan Cale

@YonatanCale (A friend is getting me up to date. Sorry, I'm not good at this yet!)

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen

@YonatanCale no worries. The "real GDP" aspect requires that the growth rate has to be higher than the inflation rate to count, so sufficiently high inflation could cause this to resolve no.

Another path would be a severe recession or depression or whatever the euphemism will be for the next big one.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought αΉ€100 of NO

@YonatanCale Because the only way to stop inflation is to tighten money enough to cause a recession

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought αΉ€10 of YES

I'll make you scream with pleasure,
Underneath the covers, we'll treasure,
Every moment spent together,
As I make you come in tether.

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought αΉ€10 of YES

I'll make you scream with pleasure,
Underneath the covers, we'll treasure,
Every moment spent together,
As I make you come in tether.

TylerColeman avatar
Tyler Coleman

@Mason Bot poetry unexpectedly off-topic/off-color here, doesn't it seem?

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