Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?
Plus
15
Ṁ12542028
95%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Scoping out the success chances of a marriage based on duration of courtship. Part of a series. See also 1 year and 2 year questions.
"After 5 years" from the date of marriage. I.e., will they still be together on their 5th wedding anniversary.
Resolves "N/A" if Austin and Rachel do not get married or get married before having dated 6 months.
If they date at least 6 months and then get married, only the highest applicable duration will stay active. For example, if they date 13 months and get married the "at least 1 year" question will remain active, and the 6 month and 2 year questions will both resolve N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Conflux Should be slightly higher than this arb due to the conditional taking out the chance of no marriage, right?
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