Miguel Ponce Espinel's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.75
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Miguel Ponce Espinel bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
- Will Silicon Valley Bank receive monetary assistance from the Fed?YESṀ110
- Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
80%