# Mathieu Putz's calibration

Grade: B-, Score: -2.79

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Mathieu Putz bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

40%

50%

60%

80%

- Gary Marcus prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to large language modelsYESṀ1,000
- Gary Marcus prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to large language modelsYESṀ1,000
- Gary Marcus prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to large language modelsYESṀ20

90%