Which Team will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

ManifoldMarkets avatarBrazil
26%
ManifoldMarkets avatarSpain
15%
ManifoldMarkets avatarFrance
14%
ManifoldMarkets avatarEngland
11%
ManifoldMarkets avatarThe Netherlands
9%
ManifoldMarkets avatarArgentina
8%
ManifoldMarkets avatarPortugal
7%
ManifoldMarkets avatarJapan
3%
ManifoldMarkets avatarCroatia
1.7%
ManifoldMarkets avatarSwitzerland
0.9%
ManifoldMarkets avatarSenegal
0.9%
ManifoldMarkets avatarUSA
0.7%
ManifoldMarkets avatarMorocco
0.7%
ManifoldMarkets avatarPoland
0.5%
ManifoldMarkets avatarAustralia
0.5%
ManifoldMarkets avatarKorea Republic
0.4%
ManifoldMarkets avatarUruguay
0.3%
ManifoldMarkets avatarGhana
0.2%
ManifoldMarkets avatarGermany
0.2%
ManifoldMarkets avatarIR Iran
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarCameroon
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarTunisia
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarSaudi Arabia
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarSerbia
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarCanada
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarCosta Rica
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarMexico
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarQatar
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarWales
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarBelgium
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarEcuador
0.1%
ManifoldMarkets avatarDenmark
0.1%
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TiannaWheeler avatar

Related market:

KevinBurke avatar
Kevin Burke
bought Ṁ2 of Brazil

Just gonna say for any mods that are listening the way this market works is very unintuitive. People want to bet 20 on Brazil without it increasing their chances by 40%, but that's what currently happens.

jack avatar

@KevinBurke Yeah, this type of multiple choice market was experimental and the reason it doesn't work well is because it doesn't support adding liquidity. They are aware of it and working on a better solution.

howtodowtle avatar
howtodowtle
bought Ṁ3 of Brazil

@KevinBurke I like this new format. With only "Buy" options when you feel an option (e.g., Argentina) is too high, your only way of betting on that is buying all other options. And that means you need a lot of Ṁ liquidity to simply short one of 10+ options instead of just directly selling that option. What often happens then is I don't bet and markets stay less efficient than if you could easily buy and sell.

jack avatar

@howtodowtle Yes, being able to buy both up and down is very important. Actually the way buying NO works in this market is actually that under the hood it buys a bit of YES shares in everything else - which is mathematically equivalent.

egroj avatar

@jack what I don't get out of these markets is how to cash on your profits, there is no sell button, so you have to necessarily buy the opposite position, which is not the same as cashing out

Daconomist avatar

I think an additional problem is that you cannot clearly see your net-position for each country. Since you need to buy the opposite position to sell your position, that becomes a bit of hassle. Especially in the world cup markets, I like to quickly adjust my positions as games develop.

egroj avatar

@Daconomist and I don't know if it is lack of liquidity, but for example check this market below. I want to leave it at 50% Brazil, 50% Portugal (because it will likely be resolved 50/50), but if I bid even $1 YES on either it goes to 100% for them and 0% for the other. Does that mean that when I'm buying YES on one, I'm also selling automatically my YES positions on all other options?

jack avatar

Actually buying the opposite position is the same as cashing out. It will automatically redeem pairs of opposite shares: 1 YES + 1 NO becomes M$1 cash.

You just have to choose your buy amount based on the displayed maximum payout - that's the number of shares you're buying, and you want that to match the number of shares you're selling.

KevinBurke avatar

@jack Sure the issue is small amount of YES bets move the odds by large amounts. I think people are expecting the liquidity pool to be bigger

Predictor avatar
egroj avatar

I like being able to bet yes/no on a single option, but there is no option to sell your shares. Do you have to buy the opposite? It doesn't even show how many shares you are buying...

DavidChee avatar

@egroj yeah just have to buy the opposite. Selling shares has yet to be implemented haha

egroj avatar

@DavidChee yeah, I just wish it show at least how many shares would be bought, to be able to compare. Also, are you saying I should buy NO in the above market 😂

NeonNuke avatar

@egroj the number of shares is the max payout (I think there are some minor rounding differences).

egroj avatar

@NeonNuke I see, and why is it called "max", why would you get less than the shares that you have?

NeonNuke avatar

@egroj Maybe, I've misunderstood you. If I buy $1 of NO shares for a question at 80%, I get 5 shares and so the maximum payout is $5 (you do not get paid if the question resolves to yes so it's a maximum).

egroj avatar

@NeonNuke oh, that makes sense! lol thanks!

TiannaWheeler avatar
Cutie avatar

I think the new yes/no multiple choice lay out is really cool, I wonder how this will effect markets though

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
bought Ṁ10 of Brazil

Something is wrong with this market... plus - why to duplicate many of such?

ManifoldMarkets avatar
Manifold Markets
bought Ṁ5 of England

@kolotom99 I wanted to try creating this market with the new Multiple choice mechanism that we just implemented (previous ones are free response). But there isn't enough liquidity rn.

Predictor avatar

@ManifoldMarkets So many people already created existing markets that aren't featured here. Doesn't feel right to me. 😥

kolotom99 avatar

@ManifoldMarkets can you add liquidity?