Relationship of @Aella & @AaronSilverbook
26
1.1kṀ3658
resolved Dec 14
Resolved
YES
First date by Dec 10?
Resolved
NO
If first date, second date within two weeks?
Resolved
N/A
If second date, third date within two weeks?
Resolved
N/A
If third date, continue relationship for six months?

Are Aella ​ and Aaron Silverbook a good match? Bet on whether they will hit any of these relationship milestones!

Each of the milestones beyond the first date is conditional on the previous milestone. For example, if the first date answer resolves NO, the others will resolve N/A.

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Still "1/100" chance of an LTR. I'm very bullish, especially on the "If second date" market:

  • Aaron and Aella are both extremely high SMV. Aella is Aella. Aaron is an (actually) 6'2, fairly-rich, cute, very witty & high IQ dude inside the exact same cultural milieu.

  • Startups between pretty people are practically an Alcoholics-Anonymous-tier sex environment. A startup is a very intimate group project, involving constant nonsexual reasons for contact and a clear cassus belli for relationship growth. As long as they're building something important together it's hard for the relationship to fall through due to inertia and if it does fall through, they very plausibly "oops" back together within the allotted time because they're like "oh-man-look-at-this-pretty-person-next-to-me-I-guess-I-wanna-cuddle-now"

  • From Aella's twitter/substack, her biggest sticking point for men seems to be "is the man good at sex (with aella)" and "does the man convincingly seem/play hard to get". I have no special information here, but Aaron gives off a 'vibe' that he's good at sex, or at least that he's sexually compatible with Aella and can get good at sex given several iterations. He certainly fulfills the "big stronk man who can potentially tower over her" criteria. And he can definitely pull off the second thing given point #2

Acceleration bot possibly gonna lose big here

Odds here suggest 0.15^3 = ~1/300 chance of a long term relationship, which seems quite low.

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