What automatically-created markets would you like to see?

Ṁ243

resolved Jan 15

ALL

Acceptance status of Python Enhancement Proposals

18%

On-demand markets for generic GitHub/GitLab Pull Requests

0.2%

Acceptance status of Ethereum Improvement Proposals

16%

On-demand markets for the passage of bills in US Congress

0.2%

On-demand Rotten Tomatoes markets

0.2%

Time to completion markets for campaigns on MapRoulette

0.2%

Automatically-created and collated future money discount markets

11%

On-Demand Box Office Forecast Markets

0.2%

What letters are in Wordle ####?

12%

On-Demand Mirroring of a Metaculus market (or similar, comment below)

0.2%

On-Demand MetaCritic Forecast Market

15%

Automatic Mirroring of US Election Markets

0.2%

Automatic Mirroring of Canadian Election Markets

Generic stock at close on ##/## on demand

None. Automatically-created markets are more harmful than helpful.

US Supreme Court decisions

0.5%

Lottery numbers

I will resolve to the ones I decide are plausible to implement in equal proportion. This may include automatic resolution if feasible. Jul 9, 2:37am: please ignore the "in equal proportion" part. I will resolve to market among the plausibly implementable answers

Get Ṁ200 play money

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GitHub pull request support implemented. Will do GitLab, Codeberg if I get requests for it

https://github.com/gappleto97/ManifoldMarketManager/

answered

US Supreme Court decisions

@LivInTheLookingGlass agreed and sold.

answered

On-demand markets for the passage of bills in US Congress

@MartinRandall I imagine we could have a little clause that specifies what we care about is the literal bill numbers, and let manually made markets handle groups of bills or the policy goals of them. That or we would designate a group of 3 users to resolve by vote

answered

On-demand markets for the passage of bills in US Congress

@LivInTheLookingGlass I could see this being awkward when politicians do weird procedural amendments where they cut and paste bills over other bills or join them together. Maybe it ends up being clear enough.

answered

US Supreme Court decisions

@MartinRandall I agree that this is something I want, but it feels way too subjective. Sometimes rulings are much more complicated that one side winning or losing, and I don't know of a way to cleanly resolve those if I am put in charge of them

answered

Generic stock at close on ##/## on demand

@LivInTheLookingGlass personally I feel like financial markets already do this well enough with options.

answered

US Supreme Court decisions

bought Ṁ1

Ideally in partnership with scotusblog

For the on-demand markets, it seems a bit awkward that if I manually create a market on X it costs me m100, but if I use the bot someone else pays that cost. An alternative would be a browser plug-in or the like that allows me to easily create a market in a standard format using my own account. Perhaps combined with a mechanism to allow me to delegate resolution to the bot.

@MartinRandall I definitely see where you're coming from there. Mostly the on demand part is to avoid flooding the feed with more markets than are needed

@MartinRandall Yeah, I think there needs to be a better structure than "Pay M$100 upfront"

@MartinRandall Maybe the way it works is: 1) select which automatically managed market you want to make 2) submit a manalink to the bot of $110 3) enjoy as the bot manages the market for you

answered

None. Automatically-created markets are more harmful than helpful.

@Duncan as far as your last point goes, the plan would be to segregate it into a group outside the main feed, and I am working on this with the blessing of the Manifold team. I will of course listen to their feedbacj

answered

None. Automatically-created markets are more harmful than helpful.

bought Ṁ5

If there is a demand for these markets, market creators will be rewarded for making them. If there is no demand, they should not be made. Having bots making good markets stifles the drive for market creators to look for good markets to create; and having the bots make markets in mass floods the feed, making user-created markets less visible, again stifling market creators.

Looking forward to these! How do you anticipate requesting the on-demand markets? A discord bot or similar, or just asking?

@wasabipesto not entirely sure yet. If the API is there, monitoring comments would be my preference. If not, I had already wanted to make a small Telegram interface for market resolutions. That would include things like "hey, our automatic resolution disagrees with round(MKT), what should we resolve to?"

I really think we need to add a discord bot to the manifold discord anyway