What automatically-created markets would you like to see?
Jan 1, 2023
M$229 bet
I will resolve to the ones I decide are plausible to implement in equal proportion. This may include automatic resolution if feasible. Jul 9, 2:37am: please ignore the "in equal proportion" part. I will resolve to market among the plausibly implementable answers
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
On-demand markets for generic GitHub/GitLab Pull Requests
17%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
On-demand markets for the passage of bills in US Congress
17%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
On-Demand Mirroring of a Metaculus market (or similar, comment below)
13%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
On-Demand Box Office Forecast Markets
11%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Automatic Mirroring of US Election Markets
10%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Generic stock at close on ##/## on demand
6%
MartinRandall
US Supreme Court decisions
5%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Acceptance status of Python Enhancement Proposals
5%
Duncan
Duncan answered
None. Automatically-created markets are more harmful than helpful.
3%
MartinRandall
Lottery numbers
0.5%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Automatic Mirroring of Canadian Election Markets
0.2%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
On-Demand MetaCritic Forecast Market
0.2%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
What letters are in Wordle ####?
0.2%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Automatically-created and collated future money discount markets
0.2%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Time to completion markets for campaigns on MapRoulette
0.2%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
On-demand Rotten Tomatoes markets
0.2%
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia answered
Acceptance status of Ethereum Improvement Proposals
0.2%
Add your answer
LivInTheLookingGlass
On-demand markets for generic GitHub/GitLab Pull Requests
LivInTheLookingGlass
On-demand markets for the passage of bills in US Congress
MartinRandall
Martin Randall is betting
Lottery numbers
@LivInTheLookingGlass I could see this being awkward when politicians do weird procedural amendments where they cut and paste bills over other bills or join them together. Maybe it ends up being clear enough.
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia is betting
Acceptance... Proposals
@MartinRandall I imagine we could have a little clause that specifies what we care about is the literal bill numbers, and let manually made markets handle groups of bills or the policy goals of them. That or we would designate a group of 3 users to resolve by vote
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
On-Demand Mirroring of a Metaculus market (or similar, comment below)
LivInTheLookingGlass
On-Demand Box Office Forecast Markets
LivInTheLookingGlass
Automatic Mirroring of US Election Markets
LivInTheLookingGlass
Generic stock at close on ##/## on demand
MartinRandall
Martin Randall is betting
US Supreme... decisions
@LivInTheLookingGlass personally I feel like financial markets already do this well enough with options.
0
MartinRandall
US Supreme Court decisions
MartinRandall
Ideally in partnership with scotusblog
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia is betting
Acceptance... Proposals
@MartinRandall I agree that this is something I want, but it feels way too subjective. Sometimes rulings are much more complicated that one side winning or losing, and I don't know of a way to cleanly resolve those if I am put in charge of them
0
MartinRandall
Martin Randall is betting
Lottery numbers
@LivInTheLookingGlass agreed and sold.
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Acceptance status of Python Enhancement Proposals
Duncan
None. Automatically-created markets are more harmful than helpful.
Duncan
If there is a demand for these markets, market creators will be rewarded for making them. If there is no demand, they should not be made. Having bots making good markets stifles the drive for market creators to look for good markets to create; and having the bots make markets in mass floods the feed, making user-created markets less visible, again stifling market creators.
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia is betting
Acceptance... Proposals
@Duncan as far as your last point goes, the plan would be to segregate it into a group outside the main feed, and I am working on this with the blessing of the Manifold team. I will of course listen to their feedbacj
0
MartinRandall
Lottery numbers
LivInTheLookingGlass
Automatic Mirroring of Canadian Election Markets
LivInTheLookingGlass
On-Demand MetaCritic Forecast Market
LivInTheLookingGlass
What letters are in Wordle ####?
dglid
@LivInTheLookingGlass I would advise against this one.
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Automatically-created and collated future money discount markets
LivInTheLookingGlass
The innovation here would be that it is unmanaged and makes a graph that people can reference
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Time to completion markets for campaigns on MapRoulette
LivInTheLookingGlass
On-demand Rotten Tomatoes markets
LivInTheLookingGlass
Acceptance status of Ethereum Improvement Proposals

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General Comments
LivInTheLookingGlass
GitHub pull request support implemented. Will do GitLab, Codeberg if I get requests for it
0
MartinRandall
For the on-demand markets, it seems a bit awkward that if I manually create a market on X it costs me m100, but if I use the bot someone else pays that cost. An alternative would be a browser plug-in or the like that allows me to easily create a market in a standard format using my own account. Perhaps combined with a mechanism to allow me to delegate resolution to the bot.
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
@MartinRandall I definitely see where you're coming from there. Mostly the on demand part is to avoid flooding the feed with more markets than are needed
0
JoyVoid
@MartinRandall Yeah, I think there needs to be a better structure than "Pay M$100 upfront"
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
@MartinRandall Maybe the way it works is: 1) select which automatically managed market you want to make 2) submit a manalink to the bot of $110 3) enjoy as the bot manages the market for you
0
wasabipesto
Looking forward to these! How do you anticipate requesting the on-demand markets? A discord bot or similar, or just asking?
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
@wasabipesto not entirely sure yet. If the API is there, monitoring comments would be my preference. If not, I had already wanted to make a small Telegram interface for market resolutions. That would include things like "hey, our automatic resolution disagrees with round(MKT), what should we resolve to?"
0
JoyVoid
I really think we need to add a discord bot to the manifold discord anyway
0

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