Kongo Landwalker's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.36
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kongo Landwalker bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will the resolution to the whales vs. minnows market be controversial?Ṁ72
- Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare the COVID-19 pandemic officially over by the end of 2023?Ṁ50
- Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023?Ṁ50