Kongo Landwalker's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.94
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kongo Landwalker bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ100
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ100
- Will @IsaacKing lose his trustworthy-ish badge in 2023?YESṀ50
30%
40%
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ500
- Will any part of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant be damaged by explosions by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will any part of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant be damaged by explosions by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will an attack on the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station) be reported by mainstream news media in 2023NOṀ300
- Will there be news before 2030 that the conditions of Uyghurs in China are worse than previously reported?YESṀ210
- Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 80% or more of the vote?YESṀ200
95%
97%