Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the next mission to land humans on the Moon involves the Orion spacecraft. Artemis III (2027) is planned to be the first American crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in December 1972. After Starship HLS reaches NRHO, SLS/Orion will send the Orion spacecraft with a crew of four to dock with HLS. Two astronauts will transfer to HLS, which will descend to the lunar surface. The market resolves YES if Orion is used for this mission as currently planned. The market resolves NO if a different spacecraft is used for the next human lunar landing, or if the mission architecture changes such that Orion is not involved in transporting the crew to lunar orbit.

Resolution will be determined by official NASA or CNSA announcements and mission documentation.