Isaac Kohane's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Isaac Kohane bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Twitter increase its number of active users, in a year after Musk's takeover?NOṀ100
- Will OpenAI release a GPT>=3 equivalent language model capable of web browsing in response to user queries before January 1st, 2024?YESṀ100
- Will OpenAI release a GPT>=3 equivalent language model capable of web browsing in response to user queries before January 1st, 2024?YESṀ100
70%
80%
90%