Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?

200Ṁ185

2029

64%

BSW

54%

FDP

54%

AfD

50%

CDU

50%

CSU

48%

Grüne

46%

Die Linke

36%

SPD

This market resolves based on the results of the next German federal election.

For each party listed:

Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Bundestag compared to the number of seats it won in the 2025 federal election
Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.

If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.

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1 Comment

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This is surprisingly hard. My naive heuristics say "parties in government lose voters" and "regression to the mean", but those either contradict each other or oppose my gut feeling. Nice market!

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