Purist's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.82
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Purist bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
80%
- Will the movie Oppenheimer (2023) get higher than a 79% overall critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes by July 22st 2023?YESṀ30
- Will the Australian Men's team win the ICC World Test championship to be held on 7 to 11 June ?YESṀ25
- Will the Australian Men's team win the ICC World Test championship to be held on 7 to 11 June ?YESṀ25