Background

Scapegoating - the practice of blaming a person or group for problems not entirely of their making - often intensifies during periods of social, economic, or political stress. Historical patterns show that vulnerable or minority groups are frequently targeted, especially during election cycles or times of national difficulty.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on which group(s), if any, face significant, widespread scapegoating in March 2025. Resolution will be determined by:

• Prominent political figures, media outlets, or influential public voices consistently blaming the specified group for major societal problems

• Demonstrable increase in negative rhetoric or policy proposals targeting the group

• Measurable uptick in mainstream media coverage documenting the scapegoating of the group

Multiple answers can resolve as YES if multiple groups face significant scapegoating during this period.

The market will resolve NO for any group if:

• The scapegoating is isolated to fringe groups or individuals without significant public influence

• The criticism of the group is based on specific, factual policy disagreements rather than broad blame for societal issues

• The group faces general discrimination (long standing) but not specific scapegoating for broader problems

Considerations

• March 2025 falls within the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election aftermath, which could influence scapegoating narratives

• International events (e.g., geopolitical tensions, economic challenges) may affect which groups become targets

• Historical patterns suggest scapegoating often increases during periods of economic uncertainty or political transition

• Social media and rapid information spread can amplify scapegoating narratives more quickly than in previous eras

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

• Multiple groups can resolve as YES simultaneously if they each meet the resolution criteria