This market resolves YES if, before the earliest official public release of Grand Theft Auto VI (currently set for November 19, 2026), U.S. uniformed services and Venezuelan state forces engage in direct, kinetic hostilities against each other.



What counts (any one is sufficient):

• Shots fired or munitions used by either side at the other’s personnel or platforms (ship‑to‑ship, air‑to‑air, air/sea‑to‑surface, or ground‑to‑air/sea).
  
  

• An intentional ramming/boarding that uses force and is accompanied by weapons use or clearly constitutes hostile force.
  
  

• An incident officially acknowledged by either government or credibly reported by at least two major independent outlets attributing the kinetic action to U.S. forces and Venezuelan state forces.
  
  

Who counts as “state forces”:

• United States: Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force, and U.S. Coast Guard.
  
  

• Venezuela: FANB (Army, Navy, Air Force), Bolivarian National Guard/Coast Guard, and other uniformed units acting under state command.
  
  

Exclusions (do NOT resolve YES):

• U.S. actions solely against non‑state actors (e.g., suspected drug‑smuggling boats) or Venezuelan‑flagged civilian/commercial vessels when no Venezuelan state unit is the target.
  
  

• Boardings, interceptions, warnings, flares, lasing, radar locks, or close passes without weapons fired or forceful ramming.
  
  

• Proxy incidents (e.g., Guyana’s forces vs. Venezuela), cyber operations, sanctions, arrests/detentions, or accidental collisions not used as deliberate force.
  
  

• Covert activity without credible public attribution meeting the evidence standard above.
  
  

Timing / release anchor:

• The market window runs until 00:00 UTC on the earliest official public release date of GTA VI on any platform. If Rockstar publicly delays the release, the end date automatically shifts to 00:00 UTC on the new earliest official date.
  
  

• If GTA VI is canceled or not released by December 31, 2028, this market resolves N/A.
  
  

Ties/ambiguity:

• If facts are disputed, resolution waits up to 7 days for corroboration. Clear video/imagery or telemetry released by a government and widely reported by major outlets may suffice as one source.
  
  

Examples:

• YES: A U.S. P‑8 fires on a Venezuelan patrol boat (or vice versa); a Venezuelan SAM shoots at a U.S. aircraft; a U.S. cutter exchanges gunfire with a Venezuelan coast‑guard vessel.
  
  

• NO: A U.S. missile sinks a suspected cartel go‑fast that departed Venezuela; a U.S. boarding of a fishing trawler with no shots; Venezuelan intercept with flares only.