Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2040, there exists at least one calendar year in which the global time‑averaged number of active 1080p‑or‑higher video feeds at any given moment exceeds the average number of human beings alive on Earth in that same year.

In other words, we’re asking whether, for some year Y < 2040, the inequality

Avg_time[ # of active 1080p+ video feeds worldwide ] > Avg_time[ # of humans alive worldwide ]

holds, based on the best quantitative evidence available.

What counts as a “1080p+ video feed”?

For this market:

• A 1080p+ video feed is any distinct process or sensor that:

  • Continuously generates new visual frames at an effective average rate of ≳1 frame per second, and

  • Has a native or rendered resolution of at least 1080 vertical pixels (e.g. 1920×1080 “Full HD” or anything higher such as 2K, 4K, 8K).

• Included examples:

  • Physical digital cameras recording or streaming video at ≥1080p:
    smartphones, webcams, laptops, drones, dashcams, car cameras, action cams, AR/VR headsets, CCTV/security cameras, factory/warehouse cameras, medical video systems, etc.

  • Multiple cameras on the same device or rig (e.g. a car with 8 HD cameras) — each camera counts as a separate feed when active.

  • Virtual or simulated cameras used to generate video, such as:

    • Robot/vehicle cameras in physics simulators

    • Synthetic data pipelines for AI training

    • Render farms producing new 1080p+ video clips or episodes

    • Other “digital twin” or 3D‑simulation workloads that output video.

• Excluded or non‑counting cases:

  • Purely still images or very slow timelapses whose effective frame rate is far below ~1 fps.

  • Simple upscaling of lower‑resolution content (e.g. a 720p stream upscaled to 1080p) — the underlying feed is treated as 720p and does not count.

  • Multiple viewers of the same underlying stream (e.g. one 4K TV channel watched by millions of people) — that is still one 1080p+ video feed for our purposes.

Intermittent feeds are fine: if a camera or simulation only runs some of the time, it contributes proportionally to the time‑average. We are conceptually integrating “how many such feeds are active right now?” over the whole year and dividing by time.

Human population side

For humans, use standard demographic estimates of global population (e.g. UN or similar) for each year. The relevant quantity is the average number of humans alive over that calendar year, not the exact peak day.

What counts as “strong evidence”?

Because we can’t literally count every feed, this market resolves based on aggregated, external estimates, not on bespoke calculations by the resolver.

The market should resolve YES if, before January 1st 2040, there is strong evidence that for at least one year Y < 2040:

• There exists a quantitative estimate (from a peer‑reviewed paper, major industry or analyst report, or a widely cited big‑tech white paper / blog) that:

  • Explicitly estimates the average number of active 1080p+ (or 1080p‑equivalent or higher) video feeds in year Y, or

  • Provides enough detail (e.g. counts of 1080p+ cameras and realistic utilization assumptions, plus synthetic‑video workloads) to derive a central estimate; and

• That estimate implies a comfortably >1 ratio of feeds to humans for that year (e.g. 2× or more), and there is no equally credible body of work suggesting a clearly <1 ratio for the same year.

Examples of evidence that would very likely trigger YES:

• A widely accepted study in (say) 2035 concluding that in 2033 the average number of concurrently active 1080p+ video feeds worldwide was ~20B while the global human population was ~9B.

• Multiple independent, serious estimates that:

  • There are tens of billions of 1080p+ physical cameras, with measured or modeled duty cycles implying several billion active at any instant, plus

  • Large‑scale AI / simulation platforms running tens of billions of concurrent 1080p+ virtual cameras,

  • Such that even conservative assumptions give feeds > humans by a large margin.

The market should resolve NO if, by January 1st 2040:

• No year Y < 2040 has strong evidence (as above) of feeds > humans; and

• The best available quantitative work up to that date makes it more likely than not that, for every year prior to 2040, the average number of active 1080p+ feeds was ≤ the average number of humans.

If the available evidence is too sparse or contradictory to form a reasonable judgment (for example, equally credible estimates pointing clearly above and clearly below, with no way to reconcile them), the creator/resolver may choose to resolve N/A rather than forcing a YES/NO call.

Timing and early resolution

• The market can resolve early if decisive evidence appears (e.g. a future study that strongly establishes feeds > humans for some already‑past year).

• Otherwise, it should resolve after January 1st 2040 using the best evidence then available.