Alex K. Chen's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alex K. Chen bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
- Will Blake Masters win the Arizona Senate seat?NOṀ50
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ10
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ10
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Nevada?YESṀ10
- Will the 2022 Alaska House Election result in a Condorcet failure?YESṀ3
60%
- Will Dr. Oz be elected to the US Senate (PA) in 2022?NOṀ50
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ44
- Will JD Vance win the Ohio Senate seat?YESṀ10
- Will JD Vance win the Ohio Senate seat?YESṀ10
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ10
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia?YESṀ5
- Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?NOṀ2
- Will a successor to GPT-3 (e.g. GPT-4) be announced in 2022?NOṀ1
70%
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ111
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Nevada?YESṀ100
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 Kansas governor's race?YESṀ75
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ60
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ55
- Will Ron Johnson be re-elected in the Wisconsin US Senate race?YESṀ33
- In 2022, will Colorado vote yes on Proposition 122, an initiative to legalize psilocybin mushrooms and other naturally occurring psychedelics (DMT, ibogaine, mescaline)?YESṀ10
- In 2022, will Colorado vote yes on Proposition 122, an initiative to legalize psilocybin mushrooms and other naturally occurring psychedelics (DMT, ibogaine, mescaline)?YESṀ10
- In 2022, will Colorado vote yes on Proposition 122, an initiative to legalize psilocybin mushrooms and other naturally occurring psychedelics (DMT, ibogaine, mescaline)?YESṀ10
- In 2022, will Colorado vote yes on Proposition 122, an initiative to legalize psilocybin mushrooms and other naturally occurring psychedelics (DMT, ibogaine, mescaline)?YESṀ10
80%
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ100
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ100
- Will Claire get into Stanford?YESṀ50
- Will Shinzo Abe die within the next 30 days?YESṀ11
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Chen Ning-Yang become a centenarian?YESṀ10
90%
- Will Chen Ning-Yang become a centenarian?YESṀ111
- Will Proposition 3 pass in Michigan amending the Michigan Constitution to establish a broad individual right to “reproductive freedom,” including abortion?YESṀ60
- Will Russia hold Kramatorsk by the end of 2022?NOṀ55
- Will Shinzo Abe die within the next 30 days?YESṀ11
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Michigan pass the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative"YESṀ10
- Will Chen Ning-Yang become a centenarian?YESṀ10
95%