agpenjoyer's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.83
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when agpenjoyer bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
10%
- Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott AlexanderNOṀ100
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ35
- Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott AlexanderNOṀ24
20%
30%
40%