Manifest 2024 Prop Bets

Manifest•Manifold•Prop Bets•Manifest•Manifest 2024

118

1.5K

Ṁ19K

Ṁ16K

Jun 10

ALL

68%

There will be a Ballpit

66%

There will be an orgy

82%

Eliezer Yudkowksy will attend

34%

A current or former OpenAI CEO will attend

94%

Aella will attend

80%

Someone will make at least 10,000 mana they wouldn't have made if they didn't attend

30%

Destiny will attend

81%

At least 1 episode of "Manifold: Live!"

31%

At least 2 episodes of "Manifold: Live!"

56%

Someone breakdances competently

91%

Someone breakdances incompetently

84%

Someone makes a new meme shirt to follow up "Robin Handsome"

60%

Someone walks 50,000 steps in one day while attending the conference

49%

someone flies me out (chris / strutheo)

89%

at least three children present in one day

five or more dogs/cats

73%

A hackathon

25%

A guest of honor is announced, then it turns out they can't make it, then it turns out they can make it after all

72%

There will be another dance hell event

15%

CFTC representative attends

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

Add anything that you think would be

Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20

There's also this for just special guests:

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will it rain at Manifest 2024?

17% chance

Where will the next Manifest (2024) be hosted?

[Unlinked multiple choice, anyone can add] Who will get invited to an orgy at Manifest 2?

What will happen in Norway Chess tournament? Prop Bets

If there’s an orgy at manifest 2, who organizes it?

🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024 if I go? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will the second Manifest be better than the first?

59% chance

Will anyone be banned or uninvited from the next Manifest conference due to threats from other potential attendees?

33% chance

Will the next Manifest include a Competitive Magic tournament?

7% chance

Will there be an orgy at manifest 2?

Sort by:

A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously

Is there a minimum size? Does it need to glow to count?

A group of five or more people break into song

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

some pretty obscure things entering the props today and this one really doesn't meet the criteria so should NA?

@Joshua

Hmmm yeah I'm okay with some options here about manifold-relevant news breaking during manifest but I don't want this to turn into "what will happen anywhere in the world from June 7th to June 9th".

@Panfilo can you edit that one to something manifest related?

@Joshua if they're pivoting into global warfare and that option becomes relevant, I'll send M500 to @Panfilo as an apology

@Joshua Too late to edit but do whatever you want

@shankypanky I already saw an orgy, is that at the conference like as a seminar?

@Panfilo if it happens, then yes, but more like a workshop I think?

(and unless Manifest attendees are themselves responsible for a coup, military ceasefire, or world leader assassination, one could easily argue it's more directly relevant for attendees to have an orgy)