Biden seems to be losing. What should his campaign be doing about this? Submit your own answers, and you'll get trader bonuses when others trade on them.
This market will resolve after the election based on my opinion of what the Biden campaign should have been doing in March onwards to make a dem win more likely. Even if a democrat does win, this market will resolve based on what I think they could have been doing now to make that win more likely.
Advice I wouldn't send back in time resolves NO, advice I would send back in time resolves YES. If it's a really tough call I may resolve an option to N/A, but more likely I would opt to resolve to NO if I'm not sure.
Please submit only a single piece of advice per answer, ideally one sentence.
Try to keep advice strongly worded, like telling Biden to do a lot more or a lot less of something instead of slightly more or slightly less. Don't submit "keep doing what you're doing", I've got one option to cover that already.
Be aware of trade-offs in your advice. If you tell the campaign to focus more on one thing, it means they'll focus less on other things.
Keep the advice unambiguous, requiring no clarification in the comments. All the information should be in the option itself.
Please try to avoid duplicating other submissions. I may N/A submissions for quality control.
While this does resolve to my opinion, I will probably take a very outside view approach to resolution. If respectable political analysts like Nate Cohn and David Shor all say that "Biden should have done X" then I will probably resolve the option "Do X" to YES. If you want a model of my own biases nonetheless, imagine that I am Barack Obama.
Note that any advice to the Biden campaign would also be counted as advice to anyone else who hypothetically replaced Biden as the nominee.
I'm setting the resolution date for December, but may postpone if I still want to wait for more thorough postmortems, like this one.
These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form until this disclaimer is removed. I may update the exact resolution rules if anyone has suggestions for improvements within the spirit of the market.
I will not trade on this market.
See also:
Related questions
This is actually a good strategy. It would discourage potential Biden voters from voting for Kennedy instead while encouraging potential Trump voters to do so. Anyone who would be discouraged from voting for Kennedy by this ad will likely switch to Biden, and anyone who decides to vote for Kennedy because of the ad would have otherwise voted for Trump
@SaviorofPlant I don't think Harris is particularly popular among black people (in general, just having a token minority as your running mate does have a history of working well, unless it's someone genuinely charismatic like Obama).
@ShakedKoplewitz I think this "history of working well" is a spectacular example of something that's going to wear out soon, just like how people criticized black side characters during the 2010s and demanded black main characters instead.
Novelty doesn't wear off fast, but after decades the subsequent generations gets tired of the paradigm and demand further optimization. That's a big part of how it goes.
@NivlacM If he gets even 2% of the vote pulling disproportionately from either party, that could swing states. The combined third-party vote in 2016 was greater than Trump's margin in the Rust Belt.
@Joshua Although if I wasn't N/A-ing it for space, it would very obviously resolve No. I'm gonna set the market to sort by New so people can notice stuff like this more easily.